Hellas Verona 0-0 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 32 as Hellas Verona welcome Genoa to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 13 April 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L L W D D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 2D 6L this season (10 games, 0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Genoa away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.50 (Genoa). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Hellas Verona, 2 for Genoa and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Sep 2024, ended 2–0 with Hellas Verona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Genoa in-play and half-time data (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 51% versus Genoa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 52% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Genoa 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.688 / defence 1.327 | Genoa attack 0.765 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.168. Hellas Verona's attack strength of 0.688 is below the league average — the 0.83 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 69 Hellas Verona games / 69 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 33% | Genoa 43%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 4.17 | Draw 3.03 | Genoa 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.01 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 30% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 33% | Genoa 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Hellas Verona 0.83 / Genoa 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.688 / def 1.327 | Genoa attack 0.765 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Genoa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Genoa xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Genoa kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Genoa.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Genoa part of?
Hellas Verona vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 24% chance of winning, Genoa a 43% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Hellas Verona and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Record (5 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 1 | Genoa 2W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-D-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.69x the league average against Genoa's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 0.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.8%), 0-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
24%
4.17
33%
3.00
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.4%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.01
1.19
Genoa xG
4.17
24%
Home win
3.00
33%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.46
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
31%
3.27
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.4 | 15.9 | 9.4 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 0.83 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.19 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 69 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 18W 15D 36L record — L-L-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Genoa's form line: 21W 24D 24L from 69 games, 1.26 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Hellas Verona on 1.00 PPG, Genoa on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 1.12 PPG from 34 outings (10W 8D 16L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 8W 11D 15L from 34 away games — 1.03 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.99 goals scored and 1.59 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.07 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 69 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Current Season
Genoa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Genoa in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 18W 15D 36L in their last 69 games (1.00 PPG), while Genoa have gone 21W 24D 24L in their last 69 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Genoa away?
Hellas Verona's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.12 PPG; Genoa away: 1.03 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Genoa have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 2, Genoa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Genoa see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 53%, Genoa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Hellas Verona) and 38% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 32% of games; Genoa in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 50% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 65% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 38% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Genoa tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Genoa in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Genoa finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.83 xG and Genoa 1.19 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Genoa landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.69 / defence 1.33 against Genoa attack 0.77 / defence 0.94, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 24% | Draw 33% | Genoa 43%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 61% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 52%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Genoa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 1.00 PPG, Genoa 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.