Genoa 0-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 39%, yet the head-to-head data favours Lazio — this Genoa vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Lazio meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 33). This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Genoa have posted 5W 4D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Genoa are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Lazio have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Genoa against 1.70 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Lazio have the stronger record — 4 wins to Genoa's 1, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 27 Oct 2024, ended Genoa 0–3 Lazio — a Lazio win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Lazio have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 2.8 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lazio — key trading statistics (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 51% versus Lazio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Lazio 51%). Note also that Lazio surrender HT leads in 32% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.21 xG and Lazio 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.954 / defence 0.871 | Lazio attack 1.071 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.132. Data: built from Genoa's last 70 games and Lazio's last 70.
Result probabilities: Genoa 39% | Draw 31% | Lazio 31%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.59 | Draw 3.27 | Lazio 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 60% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 50% (last 10 home games) | Lazio 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, matchday 33 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 39% | Draw 31% | Lazio 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Genoa 1.21 / Lazio 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.954 / def 0.871 | Lazio attack 1.071 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Genoa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lazio xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Genoa vs Lazio FAQs
What time does Genoa vs Lazio kick off?
Genoa vs Lazio kicked off at 18:30 UK time on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Genoa 0 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Genoa vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lazio part of?
Genoa vs Lazio is a Serie A fixture (matchday 33) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 39% chance of winning, Lazio a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Lazio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Genoa vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.07x) against Genoa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Genoa's last 70 games and Lazio's last 70 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.27
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Lazio xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Genoa vs Lazio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Genoa and 1.06 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 25D 24L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 34W 15D 21L from 70 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.49 PPG from their last 35 home games (13W 13D 9L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 17W 4D 14L from their last 35 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
Genoa (Home) vs Lazio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Genoa
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Genoa vs Lazio Form FAQs
What form are Genoa and Lazio in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 21W 25D 24L in their last 70 games (1.26 PPG), while Lazio have gone 34W 15D 21L in their last 70 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.49 PPG; Lazio away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 30 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won each of the latest 6 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won Genoa 1-4 Lazio on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 4L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
8
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Genoa vs Lazio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Genoa have won 1, Lazio have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lazio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 August 2026: Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 64% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 39% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, Lazio 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Genoa) and 57% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Genoa vs Lazio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Genoa and Lazio matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Genoa's games and 57% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Genoa and Lazio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Genoa's recent games and 57% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lazio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Genoa's recent matches and 77% of Lazio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.21 xG and Lazio 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Lazio attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 39% | Draw 31% | Lazio 31%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Lazio 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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