AS Roma 1-0 Hellas Verona – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Hellas Verona encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 33 as AS Roma welcome Hellas Verona to Stadio Olimpico. Kick-off is set for Saturday 19 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Hellas Verona stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Hellas Verona have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
On current form, AS Roma have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for AS Roma, 3 for Hellas Verona and 1 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2024, ended 2–3 with Hellas Verona winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
AS Roma in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Hellas Verona in-play tendencies (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 57% versus Hellas Verona 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 51% | Hellas Verona 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.76 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.329 / defence 0.820 | Hellas Verona attack 0.887 / defence 1.061. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 1.145. AS Roma carry an above-average attack strength of 1.329 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 70 AS Roma games / 70 Hellas Verona games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 58% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 16%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.72 | Draw 3.85 | Hellas Verona 6.25. The model has a clear lean to AS Roma (58%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 50% | Hellas Verona 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Hellas Verona | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 58% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 48% | xG AS Roma 1.76 / Hellas Verona 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.329 / def 0.820 | Hellas Verona attack 0.887 / def 1.061 | league avg home 1.246 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
48%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kick off?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 19 April 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
AS Roma 1 - 0 Hellas Verona.
Where is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona part of?
AS Roma vs Hellas Verona is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 58% chance of winning, Hellas Verona a 16% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both AS Roma and Hellas Verona will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Hellas Verona have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
Record (7 meetings): AS Roma 3W | Draws 1 | Hellas Verona 3W.
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in?
AS Roma (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. Hellas Verona (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
AS Roma's attacking strength (1.33x league average) is weighed against Hellas Verona's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.76. The same calculation in reverse, Hellas Verona's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.83 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.7%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
58%
1.73
26%
3.85
16%
6.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.59
0.83
Hellas Verona xG
1.73
58%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
6.20
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
43%
2.30
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
25%
3.98
3%
35.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.2 | 11.0 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Hellas Verona expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.83 for Hellas Verona, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Hellas Verona?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AS Roma come into this having played 70 games, going 33W 18D 19L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-D.
On the other side, Hellas Verona sit at 1.00 PPG from 70 outings (18W 16D 36L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-D across their last five.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Hellas Verona — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
AS Roma's home form reads 22W 6D 7L across 35 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Hellas Verona have taken 0.89 points per game from 35 outings (8W 7D 20L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Hellas Verona are on 0.97 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Hellas Verona
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Hellas Verona in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 33W 18D 19L in their last 70 games (1.67 PPG), while Hellas Verona have gone 18W 16D 36L in their last 70 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Hellas Verona away?
AS Roma's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.06 PPG; Hellas Verona away: 0.89 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Hellas Verona been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Hellas Verona in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
AS Roma's record when hosting Hellas Verona specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
AS Roma
1
Draws
3
Hellas Verona
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Hellas Verona have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Hellas Verona last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Hellas Verona 0-2 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Hellas Verona?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 54%, Hellas Verona 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AS Roma) and 40% (Hellas Verona).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Hellas Verona in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Hellas Verona away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Hellas Verona?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of AS Roma's recent matches and 49% of Hellas Verona's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Hellas Verona usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AS Roma's recent games and 40% of Hellas Verona's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Hellas Verona tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Hellas Verona in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AS Roma edge out Hellas Verona 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Hellas Verona 1-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.76 xG and Hellas Verona 0.83 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Hellas Verona landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.33 / defence 0.82 against Hellas Verona attack 0.89 / defence 1.06, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 58% | Draw 26% | Hellas Verona 16%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 51%, Hellas Verona 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Hellas Verona's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.