Genoa 0-2 Lazio – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Genoa at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Lazio meet at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 4D 1L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Lazio have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 5D 1L. Last five: D L D W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lazio's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Genoa against 1.70 for Lazio. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lazio, who have claimed 4 wins from 5 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 0–3 with Lazio winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lazio have won 4 of 5 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Lazio — key trading statistics (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 51% versus Lazio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Lazio 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.21 xG and Lazio 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.954 / defence 0.871 | Lazio attack 1.071 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.239 / away 1.132. Data: 70 Genoa games / 70 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 39% | Draw 31% | Lazio 31%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.56 | Draw 3.23 | Lazio 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.27 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 50% | Lazio 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 39% | Draw 31% | Lazio 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Genoa 1.21 / Lazio 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.954 / def 0.871 | Lazio attack 1.071 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.239 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Genoa (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Lazio xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lazio kick off?
Genoa vs Lazio kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Genoa 0 - 2 Lazio.
Where is Genoa vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lazio part of?
Genoa vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 39% chance of winning, Lazio a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Genoa and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
Record (5 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 4W.
What form are Genoa and Lazio in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Lazio (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.95x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.21 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.07x) against Genoa's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
39%
2.59
31%
3.27
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.27
1.06
Lazio xG
2.59
39%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
30%
3.36
Win to Nil
13%
7.45
9%
10.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 10.9 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Genoa and 1.06 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 70 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 21W 25D 24L record — D-W-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Lazio's form line: 34W 15D 21L from 70 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-L-D-W-D.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.49 PPG from 35 outings (13W 13D 9L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 17W 4D 14L from 35 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.46 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Lazio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lazio in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 21W 25D 24L in their last 70 games (1.26 PPG), while Lazio have gone 34W 15D 21L in their last 70 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.49 PPG; Lazio away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
8
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Lazio have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 51% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 54%, Lazio 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Genoa) and 57% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Genoa's games and 57% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Genoa's recent games and 57% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lazio tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Lazio in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lazio cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Genoa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Genoa 0-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.21 xG and Lazio 1.06 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Genoa fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Lazio outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.95 / defence 0.87 against Lazio attack 1.07 / defence 1.02, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 39% | Draw 31% | Lazio 31%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Lazio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Lazio 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.