Genoa 0-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Juventus (34%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Juventus.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Sunday 31 August 2025, 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Luigi Ferraris. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Juventus have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventus have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Genoa, 3 for Juventus and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Juventus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Juventus in-play tendencies (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 46% versus Juventus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 38% | Juventus 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.06 xG and Juventus 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.878 / defence 0.935 | Juventus attack 1.048 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.206 / away 1.083. Data: 39 Genoa games / 39 Juventus games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 33% | Juventus 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.94 | Draw 3.03 | Juventus 2.94. The draw (33%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 33% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 34% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 40% | Juventus 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 34% | Draw 33% | Juventus 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 44% | xG Genoa 1.06 / Juventus 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.878 / def 0.935 | Juventus attack 1.048 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.206 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Draw (33%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Juventus xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Juventus kick off?
Genoa vs Juventus kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 31 August 2025 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Genoa 0 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Genoa vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Juventus part of?
Genoa vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 34% chance of winning, Juventus a 34% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Genoa and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 2 | Juventus 3W.
What form are Genoa and Juventus in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Juventus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.88x the league average against Juventus's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
34%
2.97
33%
3.07
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.12
1.06
Juventus xG
2.97
34%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
12%
8.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 12.7 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 13.5 | 7.2 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Genoa and 1.06 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 39 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 10W 14D 15L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Juventus's form line: 19W 16D 4L from 39 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Juventus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Juventus are the form team by 0.74 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.16 PPG from 19 outings (5W 7D 7L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 7W 9D 3L from 19 away games — 1.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.54 scored and 0.90 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Juventus
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Juventus in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 14D 15L in their last 39 games (1.13 PPG), while Juventus have gone 19W 16D 4L in their last 39 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Juventus away?
Juventus's away record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.16 PPG; Juventus away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Genoa or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Juventus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Juventus runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Juventus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Genoa
2
Draws
5
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Juventus have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 47%, Juventus 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Genoa) and 42% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Juventus in 32%; Genoa have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Genoa's recent matches and 58% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Genoa's recent games and 42% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Juventus tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 47% of their recent matches, Juventus in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juventus edge out Genoa 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventus beat Genoa 0-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.06 xG and Juventus 1.06 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Genoa fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.88 / defence 0.94 against Juventus attack 1.05 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 34% | Draw 33% | Juventus 34%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 34%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 38%, Juventus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Juventus's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. Form held, and they took the win. Genoa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Juventus (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.