Genoa 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Bologna at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Genoa face Bologna.

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Fixture Analysis

Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off is Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Genoa have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Bologna stand at 4W 5D 1L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Bologna's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Genoa) versus 1.70 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Genoa, 1 for Bologna and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Jan 2024, ended Genoa 1–1 Bologna — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Genoa in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 29 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).

Bologna in-play and half-time data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Bologna 48%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Genoa surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Bologna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 48% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.93 xG and Bologna 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.948 / defence 1.042 | Bologna attack 1.047 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.226. Bologna bring a tight defence (rating 0.723, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Genoa's projected output down. Data: built from Genoa's last 37 games and Bologna's last 75.

Result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.02 | Draw 3.34 | Bologna 2.21. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Genoa 60% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 50% (last 10 away games).

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