Genoa 2-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Inter make the trip to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to face Genoa in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Saturday 17 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Inter have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: W L W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Inter haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Inter's form when playing away from home: 8W 1D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.50 exceeds their overall 1.90 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Genoa lead 0W to 2W over the last 4 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Inter winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Inter — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 58% versus Inter 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 42% | Inter 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.26 xG and Inter 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.030 / defence 0.939 | Inter attack 1.260 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.422 / away 1.223. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.260 — the away xG of 1.45 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Genoa games / 38 Inter games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Genoa 32% | Draw 28% | Inter 40%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 3.12 | Draw 3.57 | Inter 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Inter if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 50% | Inter 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 32% | Draw 28% | Inter 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Genoa 1.26 / Inter 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 1.030 / def 0.939 | Inter attack 1.260 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.422 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Inter (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Inter xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Inter kick off?
Genoa vs Inter kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 17 August 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Inter?
Genoa 2 - 2 Inter.
Where is Genoa vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Inter part of?
Genoa vs Inter is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 32% chance of winning, Inter a 40% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Genoa and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
Record (4 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 2 | Inter 2W.
What form are Genoa and Inter in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Genoa (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 1.03x the league average against Inter's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.26x) against Genoa's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.45.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
32%
3.17
28%
3.56
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.70
1.45
Inter xG
3.17
32%
Home win
3.56
28%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
28%
3.51
Win to Nil
7%
13.45
11%
8.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.7 | 7.0 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Genoa and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Genoa and 1.45 for Inter, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 12W 13D 13L record — W-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. Genoa haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Inter's form line: 29W 7D 2L from 38 games, 2.47 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-D. Inter haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.18 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.58 PPG from 19 outings (8W 6D 5L).
On the road, Inter have gone 15W 3D 1L from 19 away games — 2.53 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.34 scored and 0.58 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Pre-Season
Inter
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Inter in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Inter have gone 29W 7D 2L in their last 38 (2.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.58 PPG; Inter away: 2.53 PPG.
Have Genoa or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Inter in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Inter have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 4-0 on 21 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Inter?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Inter have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Inter 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 58%, Inter 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Genoa) and 58% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Inter in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Genoa's recent matches and 42% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Genoa's recent games and 58% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Inter tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Inter in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Inter share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 1, as Genoa and Inter drew 2-2 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.26 xG and Inter 1.45 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 1.03 / defence 0.94 against Inter attack 1.26 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 32% | Draw 28% | Inter 40%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 42%, Inter 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.47 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Genoa (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.