Frosinone 0-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Udinese at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Frosinone face Udinese.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Udinese in Serie A (matchday 38). Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Frosinone have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

At home, Frosinone have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Udinese's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Udinese's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Frosinone against 1.00 for Udinese. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Frosinone 0–0 Udinese — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading

Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 24 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).

Udinese half-time and goal-timing data (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 58%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 52% versus Udinese 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 53% | Udinese 44%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 58% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 38% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.13 xG and Udinese 1.48 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.924 / defence 1.373 | Udinese attack 0.891 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.210. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.373 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Udinese's projected output up. Data: built from Frosinone's last 37 games and Udinese's last 75.

Result probabilities: Frosinone 28% | Draw 28% | Udinese 44%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.62 | Draw 3.55 | Udinese 2.26. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Udinese at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Udinese if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 52% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 60% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights