Frosinone 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Bologna at 49% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Bologna encounter.

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Full Analysis

Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Bologna in Serie A (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 7 April 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Current Form

Frosinone's record over their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Frosinone's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Frosinone are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Bologna have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Bologna's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Bologna arrive in superior form — a 1.90 PPG advantage (2.50 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Frosinone's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 80% of Frosinone's games and 80% of Bologna's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Frosinone, 1 for Bologna and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 22 Oct 2023, ended Frosinone 1–2 Bologna — a Bologna win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).

Bologna half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 45%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 56% versus Bologna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 54% | Bologna 50%). Note also that Bologna surrender HT leads in 26% of cases while Frosinone recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 1.30 xG and Bologna 1.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 1.009 / defence 1.452 | Bologna attack 1.064 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.186. Frosinone's defence rating of 1.452 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bologna's projected output up. Data: built from Frosinone's last 30 games and Bologna's last 68.

Result probabilities: Frosinone 26% | Draw 24% | Bologna 49%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 3.77 | Draw 4.15 | Bologna 2.02. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.30 / 1.83) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Frosinone's last 10 home games and Bologna's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Frosinone 80% (last 10 home games) | Bologna 80% (last 10 away games).

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