Fiorentina 5-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs AS Roma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 9 as Fiorentina welcome AS Roma to Stadio Artemio Franchi. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: L W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AS Roma — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, AS Roma have gone 1W 7D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 1.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Fiorentina, 2 for AS Roma and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games).
AS Roma in-play tendencies (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus AS Roma 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 54% | AS Roma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.27 xG and AS Roma 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.073 / defence 0.921 | AS Roma attack 0.819 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.279. Data: 46 Fiorentina games / 46 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 41% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 26%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | AS Roma 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.23 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Fiorentina 90% | AS Roma 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 41% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Fiorentina 1.27 / AS Roma 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.073 / def 0.921 | AS Roma attack 0.819 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
0.96
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs AS Roma kick off?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Fiorentina 5 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Fiorentina vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs AS Roma part of?
Fiorentina vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 41% chance of winning, AS Roma a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Fiorentina and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Fiorentina 2W | Draws 2 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. AS Roma (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 0.96 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.4%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
41%
2.44
33%
3.02
26%
3.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.23
0.96
AS Roma xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.02
33%
Draw
3.85
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
16%
6.41
7%
13.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Fiorentina and 0.96 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 46 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 20W 13D 13L record — L-W-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 20W 13D 13L from 46 games, 1.59 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.59 PPG, AS Roma on 1.59. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.87 PPG from 23 outings (12W 7D 4L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 6W 9D 8L from 23 away games — 1.17 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of AS Roma's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.59 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: AS Roma in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 games (1.59 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 20W 13D 13L in their last 46 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or AS Roma away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.87 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 4 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: AS Roma have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Oct 2024, when Fiorentina won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fiorentina
2
Draws
5
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 3, AS Roma have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when AS Roma 4-0 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Fiorentina at 65%, AS Roma at 65%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Fiorentina and 56% for AS Roma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play AS Roma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fiorentina's games and 65% of AS Roma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Fiorentina's matches and 56% of AS Roma's.
Do Fiorentina and AS Roma tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fiorentina run riot with a 5-1 hammering of AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat AS Roma 5-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.27 xG and AS Roma 0.96 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 3.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.07 / defence 0.92 against AS Roma attack 0.82 / defence 0.81, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 41% | Draw 33% | AS Roma 26%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, AS Roma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.59 PPG, AS Roma 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.87 average — above their attacking norm. AS Roma (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.