Como 3-1 Lecce – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Como (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Como face Lecce.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Como and Lecce meet at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Como have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Como, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Como have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Lecce's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Lecce, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lecce's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Como's 1.80 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Lecce's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Como have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 5 meetings, with Lecce managing just 0 victories and 2 draws shared.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Dec 2025, ended 3–0 with Como winning.
The historical record gives Como a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Como half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lecce half-time and goal-timing data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 52% versus Lecce 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Como 42% | Lecce 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.24 xG and Lecce 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.139 / defence 0.823 | Lecce attack 0.742 / defence 0.890. League average goals — home 1.223 / away 1.195. Data: 64 Como games / 64 Lecce games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 48% | Draw 30% | Lecce 22%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Lecce 4.55. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 31% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Como 40% | Lecce 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Lecce | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 48% | Draw 30% | Lecce 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 37% | xG Como 1.24 / Lecce 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.139 / def 0.823 | Lecce attack 0.742 / def 0.890 | league avg home 1.223 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Como (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Lecce xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Lecce kick off?
Como vs Lecce kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 28 February 2026 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Lecce?
Como 3 - 1 Lecce.
Where is Como vs Lecce being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Lecce part of?
Como vs Lecce is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Lecce?
Our statistical model gives Como a 48% chance of winning, Lecce a 22% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Lecce?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Como and Lecce will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Lecce have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Lecce?
Record (5 meetings): Como 3W | Draws 2 | Lecce 0W.
What form are Como and Lecce in?
Como (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-D-W. Lecce (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Como's attack at 1.14x the league average against Lecce's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lecce's attack (0.74x) against Como's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
48%
2.07
30%
3.36
22%
4.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Como xG
Total xG
1.97
0.73
Lecce xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
4.57
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.08
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
6%
15.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.0 | 10.2 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.6 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.7 | 7.8 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Lecce?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Como and Lecce expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Como and 0.73 for Lecce, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Lecce?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Como have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 25W 19D 20L record — W-D-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Como is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lecce's form line: 14W 16D 34L from 64 games, 0.91 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L. The sample for Lecce is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lecce.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Como have posted 1.65 PPG from 31 outings (14W 9D 8L).
On the road, Lecce have gone 7W 6D 18L from 31 away games — 0.87 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Lecce are on 0.69 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Lecce
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Lecce in coming into this match?
Como have gone 25W 19D 20L in their last 64 games (1.47 PPG), while Lecce have gone 14W 16D 34L in their last 64 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Lecce away?
Como's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.65 PPG; Lecce away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Como or Lecce been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Lecce in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Como have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Como won 0-3 on 19 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lecce — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Como
2
Draws
0
Lecce
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Lecce?
From 6 meetings on record, Como have won 4, Lecce have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Lecce last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Como 3-1 Lecce.
Who has won more matches between Como and Lecce?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Lecce are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 58%, Lecce 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 39% for Como and 29% for Lecce.
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lecce in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Lecce away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Lecce?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Como's recent matches and 36% of Lecce's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Como vs Lecce usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Como's recent games and 29% of Lecce's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Lecce tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lecce in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lecce.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Como beat Lecce 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.24 xG and Lecce 0.73 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.14 / defence 0.82 against Lecce attack 0.74 / defence 0.89, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 48% | Draw 30% | Lecce 22%, with Como to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 42%, Lecce 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Lecce's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.91. That form edge translated into the three points. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.52 average — above their attacking norm. Lecce (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.