Cagliari 2-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cagliari vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 24 as Cagliari welcome Parma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Cagliari — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari's home record at Unipol Domus: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Parma have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Parma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Parma have gone 1W 5D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Cagliari) versus 0.80 (Parma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cagliari, 1 for Parma and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 3–2 with Cagliari winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cagliari in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Parma in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cagliari 61% and Parma 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 54% | Parma 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.79 xG and Parma 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.012 / defence 1.132 | Parma attack 0.808 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.331. Parma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Cagliari's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Cagliari games / 23 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Parma 24%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.08 | Draw 3.57 | Parma 4.17. Cagliari hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cagliari are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cagliari offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cagliari 40% | Parma 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Parma 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Cagliari 1.79 / Parma 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.012 / def 1.132 | Parma attack 0.808 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Parma xG
61%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Parma kick off?
Cagliari vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 9 February 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Cagliari 2 - 1 Parma.
Where is Cagliari vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Parma part of?
Cagliari vs Parma is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 48% chance of winning, Parma a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Cagliari and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
Record (5 meetings): Cagliari 2W | Draws 2 | Parma 1W.
What form are Cagliari and Parma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-W-L-L. Parma (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cagliari's attack at 1.01x the league average against Parma's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Parma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
48%
2.07
28%
3.57
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Cagliari xG
Total xG
3.00
1.22
Parma xG
2.07
48%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.64
39%
BTTS No
2.56
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
17%
5.97
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
4%
25.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 10.8 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.22 for Parma, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cagliari's recent record stands at 13W 18D 30L from 61 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Parma, meanwhile, have gone 25W 21D 15L across 61 games — 1.57 PPG, with D-L-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Parma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Parma by 0.64 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cagliari heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Cagliari have managed 9W 10D 11L from 30 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Parma's away record stands at 11W 11D 8L across 30 trips, a 1.47 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Cagliari are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.56 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Parma in 67%.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
Parma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Parma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 13W 18D 30L in their last 61 games (0.93 PPG), while Parma have gone 25W 21D 15L in their last 61 (1.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Parma away?
Parma's away record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.23 PPG; Parma away: 1.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cagliari and Parma runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Cagliari's record when hosting Parma specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Cagliari
3
Draws
1
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Parma?
From 9 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 5, Parma have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Parma 0-1 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Parma?
Cagliari have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cagliari at 70%, Parma at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Cagliari and 60% for Parma. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 27% of games; Parma in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Cagliari's games and 60% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cagliari vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Cagliari's matches and 60% of Parma's.
Do Cagliari and Parma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Parma in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Parma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat Parma 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.79 xG and Parma 1.22 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Parma attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Parma 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Parma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.