Cagliari 1-1 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cagliari at 38%, yet in-form Fiorentina provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cagliari vs Fiorentina fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cagliari and Fiorentina meet at Unipol Domus in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 August 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cagliari have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Cagliari haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fiorentina (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Fiorentina haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Fiorentina's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fiorentina arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cagliari have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Fiorentina in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 6 meetings, Fiorentina have the stronger historical record — 5 wins to Cagliari's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Fiorentina winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Fiorentina have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Cagliari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Fiorentina goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 50% versus Fiorentina 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 50% | Fiorentina 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 1.34 xG and Fiorentina 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.085 / defence 1.014 | Fiorentina attack 1.062 / defence 1.065. League average goals — home 1.158 / away 1.193. Data: 38 Cagliari games / 38 Fiorentina games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 35%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Fiorentina 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cagliari at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fiorentina (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cagliari if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 60% | Fiorentina 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Aug 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 38% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Cagliari 1.34 / Fiorentina 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.085 / def 1.014 | Fiorentina attack 1.062 / def 1.065 | league avg home 1.158 / away 1.193 • Poisson stance: Cagliari (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Fiorentina xG
54%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs Fiorentina kick off?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 24 August 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Cagliari 1 - 1 Fiorentina.
Where is Cagliari vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs Fiorentina part of?
Cagliari vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 38% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cagliari the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Cagliari and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Record (6 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | Fiorentina 5W.
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cagliari's attack rating (1.08) and Fiorentina's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.06x) against Cagliari's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cagliari Win
38%
2.64
27%
3.76
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.62
1.28
Fiorentina xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
11%
9.52
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.5 | 8.0 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.3 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Cagliari and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.28 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cagliari come into this having played 38 games, going 9W 9D 20L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-W-L. Cagliari haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Fiorentina sit at 1.71 PPG from 38 outings (19W 8D 11L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-W across their last five. Fiorentina haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Fiorentina carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cagliari's home form reads 6W 4D 9L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Fiorentina have taken 1.32 points per game from 19 outings (7W 4D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Cagliari are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.58 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Pre-Season
Fiorentina
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 9W 9D 20L in their last 38 games (0.95 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 19W 8D 11L in their last 38 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or Fiorentina away?
Fiorentina's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.16 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Cagliari or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fiorentina won 3-0 on 24 Oct 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cagliari have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
2
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, Fiorentina have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Fiorentina 1-2 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 47%, Fiorentina 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cagliari) and 58% (Fiorentina). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cagliari have failed to score in 37% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Cagliari's recent matches and 58% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cagliari's matches and 58% of Fiorentina's.
Do Cagliari and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cagliari and Fiorentina share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari and Fiorentina finished level at 1-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.34 xG and Fiorentina 1.28 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.08 / defence 1.01 against Fiorentina attack 1.06 / defence 1.06, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 38% | Draw 27% | Fiorentina 35%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Fiorentina 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fiorentina's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.71 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.