Bologna vs Venezia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Venezia at in Serie A, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 11 April 2027 at 16:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at , Bologna have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Venezia stand at 1W 0D 9L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Venezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Venezia's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.10 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.40 vs 0.30. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Bologna have won 2, Venezia 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Mar 2025, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Venezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | Venezia 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.47 xG and Venezia 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.851 / defence 1.036 | Venezia attack 0.622 / defence 1.125. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.464. Data: 48 Bologna games / 10 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 50% | Draw 26% | Venezia 24%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Venezia 4.17. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Venezia 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Apr 2027, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 50% | Draw 26% | Venezia 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Bologna 1.47 / Venezia 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.851 / def 1.036 | Venezia attack 0.622 / def 1.125 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Bologna (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Venezia xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Venezia kick off?
Bologna vs Venezia is scheduled to kick off at 16:30 on Sunday 11 April 2027.
What competition is Bologna vs Venezia part of?
Bologna vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 50% chance of winning, Venezia a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Venezia?
Record (4 meetings): Bologna 2W | Draws 0 | Venezia 2W.
What form are Bologna and Venezia in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Venezia (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.85x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
50%
2.02
26%
3.80
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.42
0.94
Venezia xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
19%
5.19
6%
18.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.1 | 12.4 | 5.9 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.1 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bologna and 0.94 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bologna come into this having played 48 games, going 20W 10D 18L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.77 PPG from 48 outings (25W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Venezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.46 PPG, Venezia on 1.77. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bologna's home form reads 7W 6D 11L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.29 points per game from 24 outings (7W 10D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.77 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.73 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Venezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Venezia in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Venezia have gone 25W 10D 13L in their last 48 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.12 PPG; Venezia away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Bologna or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Venezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Venezia runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bologna go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Nov 2024, when Bologna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bologna
0
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Venezia have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Venezia 0-1 Bologna.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 42%, Venezia 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bologna) and 50% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Bologna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Venezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bologna's recent matches and 62% of Venezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Venezia tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Venezia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.