Bologna 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Juventus fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bologna and Juventus meet at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 4 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna's home record at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Juventus's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
On the road, Juventus have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Bologna register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Juventus in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 7 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bologna, 2 for Juventus and 5 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Juventus — key trading statistics (72 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Juventus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | Juventus 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.67 xG and Juventus 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.462 / defence 0.810 | Juventus attack 0.944 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.115. Bologna carry an above-average attack strength of 1.462 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 72 Bologna games / 72 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 57% | Draw 25% | Juventus 19%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.75 | Draw 4.00 | Juventus 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (57%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. This conflicts with form data: Bologna 70% | Juventus 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 57% | Draw 25% | Juventus 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Bologna 1.67 / Juventus 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.462 / def 0.810 | Juventus attack 0.944 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.115 • Poisson stance: Bologna (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Juventus xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Juventus kick off?
Bologna vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Bologna 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Bologna vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Juventus part of?
Bologna vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 57% chance of winning, Juventus a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Bologna and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
Record (7 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 5 | Juventus 2W.
What form are Bologna and Juventus in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Juventus (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bologna's attack rating (1.46) and Juventus's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.67 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Juventus's attack (0.94x) against Bologna's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
57%
1.77
25%
4.07
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.52
0.85
Juventus xG
1.77
57%
Home win
4.07
25%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
19%
5.31
Win to Nil
24%
4.14
4%
28.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.4 | 11.4 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Bologna and 0.85 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Juventus?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.79 PPG on a 34W 27D 11L record — W-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
Juventus's form line: 35W 28D 9L from 72 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.79 PPG for Bologna against 1.85 for Juventus. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.20 PPG from 35 outings (22W 11D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.79 PPG overall — Bologna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Juventus have gone 14W 14D 7L from 35 away games — 1.60 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bologna are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.46 scored and 0.86 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games; Juventus in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Juventus in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 34W 27D 11L in their last 72 games (1.79 PPG), while Juventus have gone 35W 28D 9L in their last 72 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Juventus away?
Bologna's home record (2.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.20 PPG; Juventus away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Bologna or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Juventus in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Juventus have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Juventus won 3-0 on 2 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 0W 3D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Juventus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Bologna
6
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Juventus?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 0, Juventus have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 46%, Juventus 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Bologna) and 49% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 51% of their matches; Juventus in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Bologna's recent matches and 51% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Bologna's recent games and 49% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Juventus tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Juventus in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.67 xG and Juventus 0.85 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Juventus attack 0.94 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 57% | Draw 25% | Juventus 19%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, Juventus 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.79 PPG, Juventus 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.