Bologna 1-0 Fiorentina – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fiorentina at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Fiorentina encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fiorentina make the trip to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara to face Bologna in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Bologna (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing at home: 3W 7D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
Fiorentina have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Fiorentina are 0.90 PPG clear of Bologna in recent Serie A fixtures (2.80 vs 1.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Bologna, 3 for Fiorentina and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Feb 2024, ended 2–0 with Bologna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Bologna — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 48% versus Fiorentina 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 46% | Fiorentina 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.94 xG and Fiorentina 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.998 / defence 0.705 | Fiorentina attack 1.191 / defence 0.696. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.310. Fiorentina's defence strength of 0.696 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Bologna's defence rating of 0.705 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 Bologna games / 52 Fiorentina games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 39%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Fiorentina 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fiorentina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates are neutral: Bologna 50% | Fiorentina 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Fiorentina | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Bologna 0.94 / Fiorentina 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.998 / def 0.705 | Fiorentina attack 1.191 / def 0.696 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Fiorentina xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Fiorentina kick off?
Bologna vs Fiorentina kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 15 December 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Bologna 1 - 0 Fiorentina.
Where is Bologna vs Fiorentina being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Fiorentina part of?
Bologna vs Fiorentina is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 31% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Bologna and Fiorentina will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Fiorentina have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 0 | Fiorentina 3W.
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Fiorentina (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Bologna's attack at 1.00x the league average against Fiorentina's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Fiorentina's attack (1.19x) against Bologna's defence (0.70x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
31%
3.27
30%
3.29
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.04
1.10
Fiorentina xG
3.27
31%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
10%
9.83
15%
6.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 14.4 | 7.9 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 13.4 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Fiorentina expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bologna and 1.10 for Fiorentina, a combined total of 2.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Fiorentina?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 52 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 23W 21D 8L record — W-W-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fiorentina's form line: 26W 13D 13L from 52 games, 1.75 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Bologna against 1.75 for Fiorentina. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Bologna have posted 2.04 PPG from 25 outings (14W 9D 2L).
On the road, Fiorentina have gone 10W 6D 9L from 25 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bologna are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Fiorentina are on 1.71 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Fiorentina
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Fiorentina in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 23W 21D 8L in their last 52 games (1.73 PPG), while Fiorentina have gone 26W 13D 13L in their last 52 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Fiorentina away?
Bologna's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.04 PPG; Fiorentina away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Bologna or Fiorentina been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Fiorentina in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bologna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fiorentina — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
1
Draws
5
Fiorentina
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Fiorentina?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Fiorentina have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Fiorentina last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Fiorentina?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 36%, Fiorentina 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 32% for Bologna and 32% for Fiorentina.
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Fiorentina in 36%; Fiorentina in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Fiorentina away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Fiorentina?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bologna's recent matches and 40% of Fiorentina's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Fiorentina usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bologna's recent games and 32% of Fiorentina's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Fiorentina tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Fiorentina in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Fiorentina 1-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.94 xG and Fiorentina 1.10 xG, a combined 2.04. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Fiorentina landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.00 / defence 0.70 against Fiorentina attack 1.19 / defence 0.70, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 31% | Draw 30% | Fiorentina 39%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Bologna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 46%, Fiorentina 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Fiorentina's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.73 PPG, Fiorentina 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bologna win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.