Atalanta 2-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Atalanta at 72% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 12 as Atalanta welcome Udinese to Gewiss Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 10 November 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atalanta stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta at Gewiss Stadium this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Udinese have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Udinese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Atalanta) versus 1.50 (Udinese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Atalanta, 0 for Udinese and 4 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Jan 2024, ended 2–0 with Atalanta winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 53% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 67% | Udinese 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.99 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.772 / defence 1.024 | Udinese attack 0.938 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.319. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.772 — their λ of 2.99 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Udinese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Atalanta's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 49 Atalanta games / 49 Udinese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 72% | Draw 15% | Udinese 13%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.39 | Draw 6.67 | Udinese 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (72%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.99 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 70% | Udinese 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 72% | Draw 15% | Udinese 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 68% | xG Atalanta 2.99 / Udinese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.772 / def 1.024 | Udinese attack 0.938 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (72%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.99
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Udinese xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Udinese kick off?
Atalanta vs Udinese kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Atalanta 2 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Atalanta vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Udinese part of?
Atalanta vs Udinese is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 72% chance of winning, Udinese a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Atalanta and Udinese will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
Record (6 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 4 | Udinese 0W.
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in?
Atalanta (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Udinese (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Atalanta vs Udinese?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.77x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.86
13%
7.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.99
Atalanta xG
Total xG
4.26
1.27
Udinese xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.86
15%
Draw
7.60
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
5%
19.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
1%
151.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.27 for Udinese, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 28W 7D 14L from 49 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 11W 20D 18L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Udinese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 17W 2D 5L from 24 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across 24 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 28W 7D 14L in their last 49 games (1.86 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 20D 18L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Udinese away?
Atalanta's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.21 PPG; Udinese away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won 2-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Atalanta's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
6
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 3, Udinese have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Udinese last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Udinese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 54%, Udinese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Atalanta) and 33% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Udinese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Udinese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atalanta's recent matches and 50% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs Udinese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Atalanta's recent games and 33% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Udinese tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Udinese in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Udinese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Udinese 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.99 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.77 / defence 1.02 against Udinese attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 72% | Draw 15% | Udinese 13%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 67%, Udinese 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.