Monza 0-1 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Monza face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
U-Power Stadium plays host to Monza versus Lazio in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Monza have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Monza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at U-Power Stadium, Monza have gone 0W 4D 6L this season (10 games, 0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lazio's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lazio's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lazio arrive in superior form — a 1.20 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Monza register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Lazio in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Monza 0W, Lazio 2W, 2D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Monza half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Lazio half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Monza 45% versus Lazio 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Monza 39% | Lazio 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Monza 1.09 xG and Lazio 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Monza attack 0.768 / defence 1.033 | Lazio attack 1.308 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.334. Monza's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.09 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Lazio have an above-average attack strength of 1.308 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 49 Monza games / 49 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Monza 23% | Draw 23% | Lazio 54%. Fair-value odds: Monza 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | Lazio 1.85. Lazio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lazio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Monza 70% | Lazio 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Monza vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: U-Power Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Monza 23% | Draw 23% | Lazio 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 56% | xG Monza 1.09 / Lazio 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Monza attack 0.768 / def 1.033 | Lazio attack 1.308 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Lazio (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Monza xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Lazio xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Monza vs Lazio kick off?
Monza vs Lazio kicked off at 17:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at U-Power Stadium.
What was the final score in Monza vs Lazio?
Monza 0 - 1 Lazio.
Where is Monza vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at U-Power Stadium.
What competition is Monza vs Lazio part of?
Monza vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Monza vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Monza a 23% chance of winning, Lazio a 54% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Monza vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Monza and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Monza vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Lazio?
Record (4 meetings): Monza 0W | Draws 2 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Monza and Lazio in?
Monza (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-L-L. Lazio (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Monza vs Lazio?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Monza's attack at 0.77x the league average against Lazio's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (1.31x) against Monza's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.80.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
23%
4.36
23%
4.33
54%
1.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Monza xG
Total xG
2.90
1.80
Lazio xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
1.85
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
16%
6.06
33%
2.99
Win to Nil
4%
26.42
18%
5.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 10.0 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 6.0 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Monza vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Monza and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Monza and 1.80 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Monza vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 49 outings, Monza have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 12W 17D 20L record — D-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Monza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio's form line: 25W 8D 16L from 49 games, 1.69 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.61 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Monza.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Monza have posted 1.00 PPG from 24 outings (5W 9D 10L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 10W 3D 11L from 24 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Monza are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.49 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Monza
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Monza and Lazio in coming into this match?
Monza have gone 12W 17D 20L in their last 49 games (1.08 PPG), while Lazio have gone 25W 8D 16L in their last 49 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Monza at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Monza at home: 1.00 PPG; Lazio away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 5-1 on 9 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Monza have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Monza
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Monza and Lazio?
From 6 meetings on record, Monza have won 0, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Monza and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Lazio 5-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Monza and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Monza 58%, Lazio 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Monza) and 58% (Lazio).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Monza home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Monza play Lazio?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Monza's games and 67% of Lazio's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Monza vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Monza's recent games and 58% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Monza and Lazio tend to score early?
Monza have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Lazio in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lazio edge out Monza 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lazio beat Monza 0-1 at U-Power Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Monza 1.09 xG and Lazio 1.80 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Monza fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lazio landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Monza attack 0.77 / defence 1.03 against Lazio attack 1.31 / defence 1.02, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Monza 23% | Draw 23% | Lazio 54%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Monza 39%, Lazio 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Monza's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.08. Form held, and they took the win. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward. Lazio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.