AS Roma 0-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates AS Roma at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this AS Roma vs Inter fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Inter meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 6 May 2023 at 17:00 UTC.
Form
AS Roma (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, AS Roma have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Olimpico — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Olimpico. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Inter have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Inter's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for AS Roma against 1.30 for Inter. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for AS Roma, 1 for Inter and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Oct 2022, ended 2–1 with AS Roma winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).
Inter goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 48% versus Inter 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 45% | Inter 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.34 xG and Inter 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.189 / defence 0.787 | Inter attack 1.440 / defence 0.872. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 1.162. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.440 — the away xG of 1.32 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. AS Roma's defence rating of 0.787 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 71 AS Roma games / 71 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 37% | Draw 27% | Inter 36%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Inter 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: AS Roma 30% | Inter 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Saturday 6 May 2023, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 37% | Draw 27% | Inter 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG AS Roma 1.34 / Inter 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.189 / def 0.787 | Inter attack 1.440 / def 0.872 | league avg home 1.293 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Inter xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Inter kick off?
AS Roma vs Inter kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 6 May 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Inter?
AS Roma 0 - 2 Inter.
Where is AS Roma vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Inter part of?
AS Roma vs Inter is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 37% chance of winning, Inter a 36% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both AS Roma and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
Record (2 meetings): AS Roma 1W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are AS Roma and Inter in?
AS Roma (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-D-D. Inter (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.19) and Inter's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Inter's attack (1.44x) against AS Roma's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.32.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
37%
2.70
27%
3.68
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.66
1.32
Inter xG
2.70
37%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
27%
3.73
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
10%
10.08
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.4 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.3 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.32 for Inter, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
AS Roma's recent record stands at 35W 16D 20L from 71 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-D in the last five.
Inter, meanwhile, have gone 44W 12D 15L across 71 games — 2.03 PPG, with D-L-W-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.70 PPG for AS Roma against 2.03 for Inter. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, AS Roma have managed 20W 8D 7L from 35 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Inter's away record stands at 18W 9D 8L across 35 trips, a 1.80 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
AS Roma are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.03 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Inter in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Inter in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 35W 16D 20L in their last 71 games (1.70 PPG), while Inter have gone 44W 12D 15L in their last 71 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Inter away?
AS Roma's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.94 PPG; Inter away: 1.80 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Inter in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 19 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Inter won 5-2 on 5 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Inter — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
AS Roma
1
Draws
7
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 2, Inter have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2026, when AS Roma 2-2 Inter.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 34%, Inter 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (AS Roma) and 66% (Inter).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 34% of AS Roma's recent matches and 66% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of AS Roma's recent games and 66% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Inter tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Inter in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Inter cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over AS Roma.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat AS Roma 0-2 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.34 xG and Inter 1.32 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. AS Roma fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.19 / defence 0.79 against Inter attack 1.44 / defence 0.87, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 37% | Draw 27% | Inter 36%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Inter win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 45%, Inter 59%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.70 PPG, Inter 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inter win broke the near-deadlock. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Inter (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.