St Patrick's Athl. 2-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford meet at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 23 May 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 9W 1D 0L from 10 games (2.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Richmond Park this season.
Waterford have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. St Patrick's Athl.'s 2.80 PPG return is 2.00 points per game ahead of Waterford's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for St Patrick's Athl., 1 for Waterford and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Waterford — key trading statistics (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 51% versus Waterford 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Waterford 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Waterford 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.275 / defence 0.902 | Waterford attack 0.965 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.136. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.275 — their λ of 1.73 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 53 St Patrick's Athl. games / 52 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 24% | Waterford 21%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Waterford 4.76. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.72 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 70% | Waterford 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 23 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 24% | Waterford 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 / Waterford 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.275 / def 0.902 | Waterford attack 0.965 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.136 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Waterford xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 23 May 2025 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. 2 - 2 Waterford.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 55% chance of winning, Waterford a 21% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
Record (3 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 0 | Waterford 1W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Waterford (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.27) and Waterford's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.96x) against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 53/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
55%
1.82
24%
4.22
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.72
0.99
Waterford xG
1.82
55%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
20%
4.90
4%
26.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.99 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 37 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.59 PPG on a 17W 8D 12L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 14W 6D 17L from 37 games, 1.30 PPG, last five L-D-L-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for St Patrick's Athl. against 1.30 for Waterford. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (11W 2D 5L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 6W 2D 10L from 18 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.22 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 17W 8D 12L in their last 37 games (1.59 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 6D 17L in their last 37 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Waterford away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.94 PPG; Waterford away: 1.11 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Waterford in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
St Patrick's Athl.
3
Draws
2
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, Waterford have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 0-2 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 56%, Waterford 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 50% (Waterford). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Waterford in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 39% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 50% of Waterford's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Waterford in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. and Waterford finished level at 2-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.73 xG and Waterford 0.99 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Waterford outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.27 / defence 0.90 against Waterford attack 0.96 / defence 1.00, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 55% | Draw 24% | Waterford 21%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 57%, Waterford 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.59 PPG, Waterford 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Waterford (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.