Sligo Rovers 0-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 43%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
St Patrick's Athl. travel to The Showgrounds to take on Sligo Rovers in Premier Division (matchday 26). The game is scheduled for Friday 4 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Sligo Rovers have gone 3W 2D 5L — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
At home, Sligo Rovers have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 2D 2L — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. St Patrick's Athl. are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 56% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sligo Rovers 52% | St Patrick's Athl. 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sligo Rovers surrender their half-time lead 32% of the time, while St Patrick's Athl. have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.66 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.010 / defence 1.038 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.226 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.479 / away 1.133. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack rating of 1.226, which lifts their away xG to 1.44. Data: built from Sligo Rovers's last 61 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 61.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.33 | Draw 4.22 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.99. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.66 / 1.44) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sligo Rovers's last 10 home games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 80% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 26 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Friday 4 August 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Sligo Rovers 1.66 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.010 / def 1.038 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.226 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.479 / away 1.133 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 4 August 2023 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 26) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 43% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 33% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.01x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.66 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Sligo Rovers's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Sligo Rovers's last 61 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
43%
2.33
24%
4.22
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
3.10
1.44
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.22
24%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
24%
4.23
19%
5.25
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
6%
15.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.8 | 7.8 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.9 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.44 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sligo Rovers come into this having played 61 games, going 22W 16D 23L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.70 PPG from 61 outings (31W 11D 19L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sligo Rovers on 1.34 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sligo Rovers's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across their last 30 home games, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.50 points per game from their last 30 away games (13W 6D 11L).
The Goals Picture
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.70 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Sligo Rovers (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sligo Rovers
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 22W 16D 23L in their last 61 games (1.34 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 31W 11D 19L in their last 61 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.67 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
Sligo Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sligo Rovers
1
Draws
8
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Sligo Rovers have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sligo Rovers) and 63% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sligo Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sligo Rovers's games and 60% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sligo Rovers's matches and 63% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Sligo Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 70% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 70% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 0-2 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.66 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.44 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 1.04 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.23 / defence 1.11, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 24% | St Patrick's Athl. 33%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual St Patrick's Athl. win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 52%, St Patrick's Athl. 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.34 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.