Dundalk 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 43% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Dundalk face Shelbourne.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Oriel Park to face Dundalk in Premier Division (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Sunday 6 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Dundalk have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Shelbourne's record over their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Shelbourne's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Dundalk, 1.40 for Shelbourne — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 53%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 51% versus Shelbourne 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dundalk 52% | Shelbourne 36%). Note also that Shelbourne surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Dundalk recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 53% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shelbourne 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.211 / defence 1.061 | Shelbourne attack 1.093 / defence 0.586. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.153. Shelbourne bring a tight defence (rating 0.586, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Dundalk's projected output down. Data: built from Dundalk's last 61 games and Shelbourne's last 61.
Result probabilities: Dundalk 29% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 43%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 3.39 | Draw 3.65 | Shelbourne 2.32. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Dundalk 80% (last 10 home games) | Shelbourne 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 26 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Sunday 6 August 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 29% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Dundalk 1.05 / Shelbourne 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.211 / def 1.061 | Shelbourne attack 1.093 / def 0.586 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.153 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Shelbourne xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Dundalk vs Shelbourne FAQs
What time does Dundalk vs Shelbourne kick off?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Dundalk 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Dundalk vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Shelbourne part of?
Dundalk vs Shelbourne is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 26) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 29% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 43% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dundalk and Shelbourne will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Dundalk vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dundalk's attack at 1.21x the league average against Shelbourne's defence at 0.59x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.09x) against Dundalk's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
These ratings are built from Dundalk's last 61 games and Shelbourne's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
29%
3.39
27%
3.65
43%
2.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.39
1.34
Shelbourne xG
3.39
29%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.32
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
8%
12.92
15%
6.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Dundalk vs Shelbourne Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Dundalk and 1.34 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 28W 18D 15L from 61 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Shelbourne, meanwhile, have gone 19W 22D 20L across 61 games — 1.30 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.67 PPG for Dundalk against 1.30 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 18W 9D 3L from their last 30 home games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.67 PPG overall — Dundalk are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Shelbourne's away record stands at 9W 10D 11L across their last 30 away games, a 1.23 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dundalk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.11 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
Dundalk (Home) vs Shelbourne (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Dundalk
Blended
Shelbourne
Blended
❓ Dundalk vs Shelbourne Form FAQs
What form are Dundalk and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 28W 18D 15L in their last 61 games (1.67 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 19W 22D 20L in their last 61 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Shelbourne away?
Dundalk's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 2.10 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.23 PPG.
Have Dundalk or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dundalk have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 18 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear recent trend here: Shelbourne have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Dundalk
2
Draws
7
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Dundalk vs Shelbourne H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Dundalk have won 1, Shelbourne have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Shelbourne last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 September 2026: Dundalk 2-3 Shelbourne.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Shelbourne?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 86% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dundalk 60%, Shelbourne 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Dundalk) and 37% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Shelbourne in 40%; Shelbourne in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Dundalk vs Shelbourne Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Dundalk and Shelbourne matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Dundalk's recent matches and 40% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Dundalk and Shelbourne matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Dundalk's recent games and 37% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Shelbourne matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Shelbourne's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dundalk and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk and Shelbourne finished level at 1-1 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.05 xG and Shelbourne 1.34 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.21 / defence 1.06 against Shelbourne attack 1.09 / defence 0.59, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 29% | Draw 27% | Shelbourne 43%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 52%, Shelbourne 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Shelbourne's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dundalk 1.67 PPG, Shelbourne 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.