Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 20 June 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Shelbourne's home record at Tolka Park: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.
Derry City (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Derry City have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 0.50 PPG lead over Derry City (1.50 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Shelbourne 2W, Derry City 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 May 2025, ended 0–2 with Derry City winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Derry City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Derry City 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 31% | Derry City 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.24 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.989 / defence 1.000 | Derry City attack 0.933 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.126. Data: 57 Shelbourne games / 55 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 40% | Draw 28% | Derry City 31%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Derry City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shelbourne at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 50% | Derry City 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 20 Jun 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 40% | Draw 28% | Derry City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Shelbourne 1.24 / Derry City 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.989 / def 1.000 | Derry City attack 0.933 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Derry City xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Derry City kick off?
Shelbourne vs Derry City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 20 June 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Shelbourne 0 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Shelbourne vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Derry City part of?
Shelbourne vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 40% chance of winning, Derry City a 31% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shelbourne and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
Record (4 meetings): Shelbourne 2W | Draws 1 | Derry City 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (0.93x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 57/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
40%
2.47
28%
3.53
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.29
1.05
Derry City xG
2.47
40%
Home win
3.53
28%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
14%
7.07
9%
11.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 10.7 | 5.6 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.2 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.05 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 32W 27D 13L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 32W 24D 16L from 72 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.67 for Derry City. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.86 PPG from 36 outings (18W 13D 5L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 14W 12D 10L from 36 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.46 scored and 0.76 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Derry City in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 27D 13L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Derry City away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.86 PPG; Derry City away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Derry City in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Shelbourne 0-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derry City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Derry City 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Derry City in 44%; Derry City in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Derry City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 39% of Derry City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Shelbourne 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shelbourne 0-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.24 xG and Derry City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Shelbourne fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.99 / defence 1.00 against Derry City attack 0.93 / defence 0.98, drawn from 57/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 40% | Draw 28% | Derry City 31%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Derry City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Derry City 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Derry City 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Derry City win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Derry City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.