Shelbourne 1-0 Bohemians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Bohemians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Friday 11 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shelbourne have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: L L W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Tolka Park, Shelbourne have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park.
Bohemians's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bohemians's away record: 2W 6D 2L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Shelbourne 0W, Bohemians 1W, 2D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Bohemians — key trading statistics (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Bohemians 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 31% | Bohemians 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 1.015 / defence 1.012 | Bohemians attack 0.987 / defence 1.057. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.041. Data: 44 Shelbourne games / 44 Bohemians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 41% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 29%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | Bohemians 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Shelbourne 50% | Bohemians 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Bohemians | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 11 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 41% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Shelbourne 1.30 / Bohemians 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 1.015 / def 1.012 | Bohemians attack 0.987 / def 1.057 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Bohemians xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Bohemians kick off?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 11 April 2025 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 Bohemians.
Where is Shelbourne vs Bohemians being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Bohemians part of?
Shelbourne vs Bohemians is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 41% chance of winning, Bohemians a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shelbourne and Bohemians will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Bohemians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Record (3 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 2 | Bohemians 1W.
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (1.01) and Bohemians's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Bohemians's attack (0.99x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
41%
2.42
30%
3.32
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.34
1.04
Bohemians xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
8%
12.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.0 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Bohemians expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.04 for Bohemians, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Bohemians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne's recent record stands at 32W 27D 13L from 72 games, a 1.71 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Bohemians, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 24L across 72 games — 1.39 PPG, with D-L-W-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.39 for Bohemians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shelbourne have managed 18W 13D 5L from 36 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bohemians's away record stands at 12W 12D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game recently; Bohemians are on 1.28 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Bohemians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Bohemians in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 27D 13L in their last 72 games (1.71 PPG), while Bohemians have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Bohemians away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.86 PPG; Bohemians away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Bohemians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Bohemians in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Bohemians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Shelbourne
5
Draws
3
Bohemians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 2, Bohemians have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Bohemians last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Bohemians?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bohemians see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Bohemians 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Shelbourne and 33% for Bohemians.
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bohemians in 36%; Bohemians in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Bohemians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Bohemians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 44% of Bohemians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Bohemians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 33% of Bohemians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Bohemians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Bohemians 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.30 xG and Bohemians 1.04 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 1.01 / defence 1.01 against Bohemians attack 0.99 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 41% | Draw 30% | Bohemians 29%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 31%, Bohemians 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.71 PPG, Bohemians 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.