Bohemians 1-0 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bohemians at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Cork City encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Cork City travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 18 April 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.70 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Dalymount Park this season.
Cork City — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Cork City have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
On current form, Bohemians have the edge — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.70) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Bohemians, 2 for Cork City and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2025, ended 1–2 with Cork City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cork City trading profile (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus Cork City 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 38% | Cork City 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.88 xG and Cork City 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.015 / defence 1.093 | Cork City attack 0.886 / defence 1.476. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.081. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.476 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 45 Bohemians games / 9 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Cork City 20%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Cork City 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 80% | Cork City 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Cork City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 56% | xG Bohemians 1.88 / Cork City 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.015 / def 1.093 | Cork City attack 0.886 / def 1.476 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.081 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.88
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Cork City xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Cork City kick off?
Bohemians vs Cork City kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 April 2025 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Cork City.
Where is Bohemians vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Cork City part of?
Bohemians vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 56% chance of winning, Cork City a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bohemians and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
Record (5 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 0 | Cork City 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-D. Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (1.01) and Cork City's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 1.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
56%
1.77
23%
4.27
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.88
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.93
1.05
Cork City xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
15%
6.57
Win to Nil
20%
5.06
3%
32.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.5 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 1.88 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.05 for Cork City, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bohemians come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 12D 14L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-D.
On the other side, Cork City sit at 0.84 PPG from 37 outings (8W 7D 22L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.22 PPG, Cork City on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bohemians's home form reads 5W 6D 8L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.11 PPG return.
Away from home, Cork City have taken 0.47 points per game from 19 outings (2W 3D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 0.97 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Cork City
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Cork City in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 11W 12D 14L in their last 37 games (1.22 PPG), while Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Cork City away?
Bohemians's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.11 PPG; Cork City away: 0.47 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 22 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bohemians have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 May 2023, when Bohemians won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
0
Draws
2
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 6, Cork City have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2025, when Bohemians 3-0 Cork City.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Cork City?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, Cork City 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Bohemians) and 68% (Cork City). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Bohemians have failed to score in 26% of games; Cork City in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Bohemians's recent matches and 47% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 42% of Bohemians's matches and 68% of Cork City's.
Do Bohemians and Cork City tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Cork City in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Cork City 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Cork City 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.88 xG and Cork City 1.05 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bohemians fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cork City landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.01 / defence 1.09 against Cork City attack 0.89 / defence 1.48, drawn from 45/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Cork City 20%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 38%, Cork City 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (37 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.22 PPG, Cork City 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line. Cork City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.84 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.42 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.