Shamrock Rovers 3-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shamrock Rovers (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shamrock Rovers face Finn Harps.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers host Finn Harps at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shamrock Rovers stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shamrock Rovers's home record at Tallaght Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Finn Harps — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Finn Harps's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Shamrock Rovers are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Shamrock Rovers register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Finn Harps in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 1 for Finn Harps and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 3–0 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 56% versus Finn Harps 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Finn Harps 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.79 xG and Finn Harps 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.154 / defence 0.680 | Finn Harps attack 0.896 / defence 1.213. League average goals — home 1.279 / away 1.266. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.213 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Shamrock Rovers's defence rating of 0.680 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Shamrock Rovers games / 49 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 61% | Draw 25% | Finn Harps 15%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.64 | Draw 4.00 | Finn Harps 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shamrock Rovers 60% | Finn Harps 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 61% | Draw 25% | Finn Harps 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.79 / Finn Harps 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.154 / def 0.680 | Finn Harps attack 0.896 / def 1.213 | league avg home 1.279 / away 1.266 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Finn Harps xG
46%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 1 Finn Harps.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 61% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 15% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
Record (5 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 3W | Draws 1 | Finn Harps 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Shamrock Rovers's attack at 1.15x the league average against Finn Harps's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.4%), 1-1 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
61%
1.65
25%
4.03
15%
6.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.56
0.77
Finn Harps xG
1.65
61%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
6.85
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
46%
2.16
17%
6.00
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
41.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.5 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.77 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 24W 6D 6L from 36 games, a 2.17 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five.
Finn Harps, meanwhile, have gone 11W 11D 14L across 36 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-D-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.95 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Finn Harps heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 12W 5D 1L from 18 games — 2.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Finn Harps's away record stands at 6W 5D 7L across 18 trips, a 1.28 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.22 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps in 61%.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 24W 6D 6L in their last 36 games (2.17 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 11W 11D 14L in their last 36 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Finn Harps away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.28 PPG; Finn Harps away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Finn Harps been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Finn Harps in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 September 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Sep 2022, when Shamrock Rovers won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 6, Finn Harps have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2022, when Shamrock Rovers 5-1 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 67%, Finn Harps 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 67% (Finn Harps). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 61% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 67% of Finn Harps's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Finn Harps.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Finn Harps 3-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.79 xG and Finn Harps 0.77 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.15 / defence 0.68 against Finn Harps attack 0.90 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 61% | Draw 25% | Finn Harps 15%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 61%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Finn Harps 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Finn Harps's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.17 PPG against 1.22. Form held, and they took the win. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm. Finn Harps (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.