Drogheda United 0-4 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Head in the Game Park to take on Drogheda United. The game is scheduled for Friday 6 May 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Drogheda United's home record at Head in the Game Park: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Drogheda United) versus 1.20 (St Patrick's Athl.). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Profile
Drogheda United in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 50% versus St Patrick's Athl. 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.965 / defence 1.049 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.010 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.225. Data: 49 Drogheda United games / 49 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Drogheda United 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 29% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Drogheda United 1.05 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.965 / def 1.049 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.010 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 May 2022 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 0 - 4 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 29% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Drogheda United (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 1.30 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
29%
3.43
30%
3.37
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.4%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
2.35
1.30
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
14%
6.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 12.4 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.30 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Drogheda United have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 12W 8D 16L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form line: 18W 8D 10L from 36 games, 1.72 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-D.
Put side by side, St Patrick's Athl. are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Drogheda United.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Drogheda United have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 6W 6D 6L from 18 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Drogheda United are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.56 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Drogheda United have gone 12W 8D 16L in their last 36 games (1.22 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 8D 10L in their last 36 (1.72 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Drogheda United at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Drogheda United's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Drogheda United at home: 1.39 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Drogheda United or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Drogheda United have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Drogheda United see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Drogheda United 50%, St Patrick's Athl. 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Drogheda United) and 44% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Drogheda United have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Drogheda United play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Drogheda United's games and 67% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Drogheda United's recent games and 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 0-4 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 1.05 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.30 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United fell 1.1 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.30 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.96 / defence 1.05 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.01 / defence 0.87, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 29% | Draw 30% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 41%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Drogheda United 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Drogheda United's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. That form edge translated into the three points. Drogheda United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.