Longford Town 1-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Waterford (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Longford Town face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waterford make the trip to Bishopsgate Stadium to face Longford Town in Premier Division, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Saturday 13 November 2021 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Longford Town have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Longford Town at Bishopsgate Stadium this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
Waterford's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W L D L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Waterford's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Waterford are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Waterford have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Longford Town's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2021, ended 1–4 with Waterford winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Waterford have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Longford Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
Waterford goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Longford Town 44% versus Waterford 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Longford Town 41% | Waterford 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 0.80 xG and Waterford 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.620 / defence 1.617 | Waterford attack 0.787 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.147. Longford Town's attack strength of 0.620 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 34 Longford Town games / 34 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Waterford 53%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | Waterford 1.89. Waterford hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.25 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates are neutral: Longford Town 50% | Waterford 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Nov 2021, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Waterford 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Longford Town 0.80 / Waterford 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.620 / def 1.617 | Waterford attack 0.787 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Waterford (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Waterford xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Longford Town vs Waterford kick off?
Longford Town vs Waterford kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 13 November 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Waterford?
Longford Town 1 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Longford Town vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Waterford part of?
Longford Town vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 20% chance of winning, Waterford a 53% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Longford Town and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Longford Town vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Waterford?
Record (3 meetings): Longford Town 0W | Draws 0 | Waterford 3W.
What form are Longford Town and Waterford in?
Longford Town (all comps): 1W-0D-9L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Waterford (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.62x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.79x) against Longford Town's defence (1.62x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
20%
4.88
27%
3.75
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.25
1.46
Waterford xG
4.88
20%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
45%
2.22
Win to Nil
5%
21.00
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 15.3 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 12.2 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.8 | 3.5 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.46 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Longford Town's recent record stands at 2W 8D 24L from 34 games, a 0.41 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Waterford, meanwhile, have gone 12W 4D 18L across 34 games — 1.18 PPG, with W-W-L-D-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Waterford by 0.77 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Longford Town have managed 2W 3D 12L from 17 games — 0.53 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Waterford's away record stands at 6W 1D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Waterford come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Longford Town are averaging 0.62 goals scored and 1.91 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.03 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 34 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Longford Town and Waterford in coming into this match?
Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 24L in their last 34 games (0.41 PPG), while Waterford have gone 12W 4D 18L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Longford Town at home or Waterford away?
Waterford's away record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Longford Town at home: 0.53 PPG; Waterford away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since April 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 November 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Waterford?
From 4 meetings on record, Longford Town have won 0, Waterford have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 13 November 2021, when Longford Town 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Longford Town 35%, Waterford 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Longford Town) and 59% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Longford Town have failed to score in 53% of games; Waterford in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Longford Town play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Longford Town's recent matches and 47% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Longford Town vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Longford Town's recent games and 59% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Longford Town and Waterford tend to score early?
Longford Town have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Longford Town and Waterford share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 35, as Longford Town and Waterford drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 0.80 xG and Waterford 1.46 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.62 / defence 1.62 against Waterford attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 20% | Draw 27% | Waterford 53%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Longford Town 41%, Waterford 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Longford Town's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.
Waterford's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Waterford arrived the stronger side — 1.18 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Longford Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.