Waterford 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. make the trip to Waterford Regional Sports Centre to face Waterford in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Waterford (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Waterford at Waterford Regional Sports Centre this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Waterford are significantly better at Waterford Regional Sports Centre than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl.'s overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Waterford against 1.40 for St Patrick's Athl.. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Waterford register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, St Patrick's Athl. in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Waterford — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
St Patrick's Athl. — key trading statistics (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 69% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 51% versus St Patrick's Athl. 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 54% | St Patrick's Athl. 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.49 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.079 / defence 1.384 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.077 / defence 1.254. League average goals — home 1.098 / away 1.140. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.254 — this is suppressing Waterford's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 35 Waterford games / 35 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 34% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 43%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.19 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 34% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG Waterford 1.49 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.079 / def 1.384 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.077 / def 1.254 | league avg home 1.098 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.70
St Patrick's Athl. xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Waterford 0 - 0 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 34% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Waterford (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Waterford's attack at 1.08x the league average against St Patrick's Athl.'s defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — St Patrick's Athl.'s attack (1.08x) against Waterford's defence (1.38x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 35/35 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
34%
2.96
23%
4.28
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Waterford xG
Total xG
3.19
1.70
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.96
34%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.72
Clean Sheet
18%
5.47
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
6%
16.22
10%
10.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Waterford and 1.70 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Waterford's recent record stands at 12W 5D 18L from 35 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 10L across 35 games — 1.74 PPG, with W-W-D-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours St Patrick's Athl. by 0.57 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Waterford heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Waterford have managed 6W 3D 8L from 17 games — 1.24 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 6W 5D 6L across 17 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Waterford are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 35 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 12W 5D 18L in their last 35 games (1.17 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 18W 7D 10L in their last 35 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.24 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 10 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 on 20 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Waterford have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
4
Draws
5
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, St Patrick's Athl. have won 5, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 10 July 2026, when Waterford 1-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Waterford and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Waterford) and 47% (St Patrick's Athl.).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Waterford's games and 71% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Waterford's recent games and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Waterford's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 0-0 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.49 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.70 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Waterford fell 1.5 short of their projected output. St Patrick's Athl. landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.08 / defence 1.38 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.08 / defence 1.25, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 34% | Draw 23% | St Patrick's Athl. 43%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 54%, St Patrick's Athl. 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, St Patrick's Athl. arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.