Longford Town 1-2 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Longford Town face Waterford.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Waterford make the trip to Bishopsgate Stadium to face Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 17). The match kicks off on Monday 21 June 2021 at 20:45 UK time.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Waterford edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 1.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 24 Apr 2021, ended Longford Town 0–1 Waterford — a Waterford win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Longford Town 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Longford Town attack 0.705 / defence 1.301 | Waterford attack 0.701 / defence 1.499. League average goals — home 0.972 / away 1.351. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.705 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.03. Waterford's defence rating of 1.499 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Waterford's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.23. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.301 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Waterford's projected output up. Data: built from Longford Town's last 16 games and Waterford's last 16.
Result probabilities: Longford Town 30% | Draw 31% | Waterford 40%. Fair-value odds: Longford Town 3.38 | Draw 3.27 | Waterford 2.51. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Waterford if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Longford Town vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 17 | Venue: Bishopsgate Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 21 June 2021 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Longford Town 30% | Draw 31% | Waterford 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Longford Town 1.03 / Waterford 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Longford Town attack 0.705 / def 1.301 | Waterford attack 0.701 / def 1.499 | league avg home 0.972 / away 1.351 • Poisson stance: Waterford (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Longford Town xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Waterford xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Longford Town vs Waterford FAQs
What time does Longford Town vs Waterford kick off?
Longford Town vs Waterford kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Monday 21 June 2021 at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What was the final score in Longford Town vs Waterford?
Longford Town 1 - 2 Waterford.
Where is Longford Town vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Bishopsgate Stadium.
What competition is Longford Town vs Waterford part of?
Longford Town vs Waterford is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 17) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Longford Town a 30% chance of winning, Waterford a 40% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Longford Town and Waterford will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Longford Town vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Longford Town's attacking strength (0.70x league average) is weighed against Waterford's defensive record (1.50x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.03. Flip it around — Waterford's attack (0.70x) against Longford Town's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Longford Town's last 16 games and Waterford's last 16 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
30%
3.38
31%
3.27
40%
2.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Longford Town xG
Total xG
2.26
1.23
Waterford xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.51
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
29%
3.43
36%
2.79
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
14%
7.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Longford Town vs Waterford Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Longford Town vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Longford Town and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Longford Town and 1.23 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Longford Town vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Longford Town (Home) vs Waterford (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Longford Town
Pre-Season
Waterford
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 13 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Waterford won Waterford 4-1 Longford Town on 20 Aug 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Longford Town have gone 0W 1D 1L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Waterford — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Longford Town
1
Draws
3
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Longford Town vs Waterford H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Longford Town and Waterford?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Longford Town have won 0, Waterford have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Longford Town and Waterford last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 November 2021: Longford Town 1-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Longford Town and Waterford?
Waterford have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Longford Town home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as Waterford edge out Longford Town 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Waterford beat Longford Town 1-2 at Bishopsgate Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Longford Town 1.03 xG and Waterford 1.23 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Longford Town attack 0.70 / defence 1.30 against Waterford attack 0.70 / defence 1.50, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Longford Town 30% | Draw 31% | Waterford 40%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.