Waterford 1-4 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 70%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Shamrock Rovers at Waterford Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 June 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 0.55 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 0.635 / defence 1.594 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.888 / defence 0.957. League average goals — home 0.908 / away 1.357. Waterford's attack strength of 0.635 is below the league average — the 0.55 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Waterford games / 15 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 9% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 70%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 11.11 | Draw 4.76 | Shamrock Rovers 1.43. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (70%) — a 61pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 70% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Waterford Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Friday 18 Jun 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 9% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 70% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 37% | xG Waterford 0.55 / Shamrock Rovers 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 0.635 / def 1.594 | Shamrock Rovers attack 0.888 / def 0.957 | league avg home 0.908 / away 1.357 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (70%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.55
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Shamrock Rovers xG
37%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 June 2021 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Waterford 1 - 4 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Waterford Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 9% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 70% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Waterford and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Waterford's attack rating (0.64) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 0.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-2 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.0%), 1-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
9%
11.00
21%
4.68
70%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
15.6%
Away win
0 – 3
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.55
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.47
1.92
Shamrock Rovers xG
11.00
9%
Home win
4.68
21%
Draw
1.44
70%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
15%
6.83
58%
1.74
Win to Nil
1%
75.11
40%
2.50
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 16.2 | 15.6 | 10.0 | 4.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 | 4.7 | 8.9 | 8.6 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 4 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 0.55 expected goals for Waterford and 1.92 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Shamrock Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 70%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Waterford's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Waterford
1
Draws
8
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Dominant Shamrock Rovers run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 1-4 at Waterford Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 0.55 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.92 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shamrock Rovers outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 0.64 / defence 1.59 against Shamrock Rovers attack 0.89 / defence 0.96, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 9% | Draw 21% | Shamrock Rovers 70%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.