Derry City 0-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Derry City vs Shelbourne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium to face Derry City in Premier Division, Regular Season - 36. The match kicks off on Friday 1 November 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Derry City (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Derry City's home record at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium: 4W 6D 0L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Derry City are significantly better at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Shelbourne have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Derry City lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Derry City — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 26% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 42% versus Shelbourne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Derry City 41% | Shelbourne 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.27 xG and Shelbourne 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.124 / defence 0.959 | Shelbourne attack 0.870 / defence 0.903. League average goals — home 1.252 / away 1.025. Data: 71 Derry City games / 71 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Derry City 44% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 23%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 2.27 | Draw 3.12 | Shelbourne 4.35. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Derry City if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Derry City 70% | Shelbourne 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 1 Nov 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 44% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Derry City 1.27 / Shelbourne 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.124 / def 0.959 | Shelbourne attack 0.870 / def 0.903 | league avg home 1.252 / away 1.025 • Poisson stance: Derry City (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Shelbourne xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Derry City vs Shelbourne kick off?
Derry City vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 1 November 2024 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Derry City 0 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Derry City vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Shelbourne part of?
Derry City vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 44% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 23% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Derry City and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Derry City vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
Record (2 meetings): Derry City 0W | Draws 2 | Shelbourne 0W.
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in?
Derry City (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-W-L. Shelbourne (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Derry City's attack rating (1.12) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (0.87x) against Derry City's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
44%
2.26
32%
3.08
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.13
0.86
Shelbourne xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.35
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
19%
5.32
7%
15.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Derry City and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Derry City and 0.86 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Derry City come into this having played 71 games, going 32W 24D 15L for 1.69 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-L.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.69 PPG from 71 outings (31W 27D 13L), a run that reads D-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Derry City against 1.69 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Derry City's home form reads 18W 12D 5L across 35 games on their own ground, a 1.89 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.51 points per game from 35 outings (13W 14D 8L).
Attack vs Defence
Derry City are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.17 scored and 0.76 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; Shelbourne in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Current Season
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Derry City and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 32W 24D 15L in their last 71 games (1.69 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 31W 27D 13L in their last 71 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Shelbourne away?
Derry City's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.89 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.51 PPG.
Have Derry City or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Derry City have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 25 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Derry City have gone 1W 3D 2L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Derry City
4
Draws
3
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Derry City have won 3, Shelbourne have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Derry City and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Derry City 0-0 Shelbourne.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Derry City see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Derry City 46%, Shelbourne 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 43% for Derry City and 26% for Shelbourne.
On the defensive side: Derry City keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Shelbourne in 43%; Shelbourne in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Derry City play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Derry City's recent matches and 40% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Derry City vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Derry City's recent games and 26% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Derry City have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Derry City 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Derry City 0-1 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.27 xG and Shelbourne 0.86 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Derry City fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Shelbourne attack 0.87 / defence 0.90, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 44% | Draw 32% | Shelbourne 23%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a Shelbourne win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 41%, Shelbourne 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Shelbourne's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Derry City 1.69 PPG, Shelbourne 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Derry City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.