Derry City 3-0 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Derry City at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Derry City vs Longford Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Derry City welcome Longford Town to The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium in Premier Division (matchday 28). Kick-off is Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Derry City have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, Derry City have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Longford Town — last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Longford Town's form when playing away from home: 0W 4D 6L across their last 10 road games (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Derry City are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Derry City's last 10 home games and Longford Town's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Derry City have won 1, Longford Town 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 31 Jul 2021, ended Derry City 2–0 Longford Town — a Derry City win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Derry City trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Longford Town trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Derry City 63% versus Longford Town 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Derry City 44% | Longford Town 41%). Note also that Longford Town surrender HT leads in 60% of cases while Derry City recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 33% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Derry City 1.76 xG and Longford Town 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Derry City attack 1.066 / defence 1.204 | Longford Town attack 0.748 / defence 1.503. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.227. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.503 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Derry City's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.748 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.10. Derry City's defence rating of 1.204 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Derry City's last 27 games and Longford Town's last 27.
Result probabilities: Derry City 53% | Draw 24% | Longford Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Derry City 1.90 | Draw 4.25 | Longford Town 4.20. Derry City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.86. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.86 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Derry City as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.86 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Derry City's last 10 home games and Longford Town's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Derry City 70% (last 10 home games) | Longford Town 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Derry City vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 28 | Venue: The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 24 September 2021 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Derry City 53% | Draw 24% | Longford Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Derry City 1.76 / Longford Town 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Derry City attack 1.066 / def 1.204 | Longford Town attack 0.748 / def 1.503 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: Derry City (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Derry City xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Longford Town xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Derry City vs Longford Town kick off?
Derry City vs Longford Town kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 24 September 2021 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What was the final score in Derry City vs Longford Town?
Derry City 3 - 0 Longford Town.
Where is Derry City vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium.
What competition is Derry City vs Longford Town part of?
Derry City vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 28) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Derry City a 53% chance of winning, Longford Town a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Derry City and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Derry City vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Derry City's attack at 1.07x the league average against Longford Town's defence at 1.50x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Longford Town's attack versus Derry City's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Derry City's last 27 games and Longford Town's last 27 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
53%
1.90
24%
4.25
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Derry City xG
Total xG
2.86
1.10
Longford Town xG
1.90
53%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
17%
5.80
Win to Nil
17%
5.73
4%
24.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 11.1 | 6.1 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.2 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Derry City vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Derry City and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Derry City and 1.10 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.86.
How confident is the prediction model for Derry City vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Derry City's recent record stands at 10W 9D 8L from 27 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Longford Town, meanwhile, have gone 2W 8D 17L across 27 games — 0.52 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Derry City by 0.92 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Longford Town heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Derry City have managed 3W 7D 3L from their last 13 home games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Longford Town's away record stands at 0W 5D 8L across their last 13 away games, a 0.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Derry City are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Longford Town are on 0.70 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Derry City have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Derry City
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
Derry City (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Derry City
Blended
Longford Town
Blended
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town Form FAQs
What form are Derry City and Longford Town in coming into this match?
Derry City have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 games (1.44 PPG), while Longford Town have gone 2W 8D 17L in their last 27 (0.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Derry City at home or Longford Town away?
Derry City's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Derry City at home: 1.23 PPG; Longford Town away: 0.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 4 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from March 2021. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 24 September 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Derry City have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 24 Sep 2021, when Derry City won Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Derry City's record when hosting Longford Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Derry City
1
Draws
1
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Derry City and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Derry City have won 2, Longford Town have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Derry City and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 September 2021: Derry City 3-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Derry City and Longford Town?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Longford Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Derry City at 69%, Longford Town at 69%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Derry City) and 46% (Longford Town).
On the defensive side: Longford Town in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Derry City home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Derry City vs Longford Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Derry City and Longford Town matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 69% of Derry City's games and 69% of Longford Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Derry City and Longford Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Derry City's recent games and 46% of Longford Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Derry City and Longford Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Derry City's recent matches and 77% of Longford Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Derry City run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Longford Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Longford Town 3-0 at The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Derry City 1.76 xG and Longford Town 1.10 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Derry City beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Longford Town landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Derry City attack 1.07 / defence 1.20 against Longford Town attack 0.75 / defence 1.50, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Derry City 53% | Draw 24% | Longford Town 24%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Derry City 44%, Longford Town 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Derry City's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Longford Town's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.52. Form held, and they took the win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line. Longford Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.