St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 38%, yet in-form Shamrock Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 24 September 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at Richmond Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have recorded 7W 1D 2L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Shamrock Rovers have posted 7W 0D 3L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 0.60 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 1.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 89% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 62% versus Shamrock Rovers 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 54% | Shamrock Rovers 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.242 / defence 1.008 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.001 / defence 0.943. League average goals — home 1.097 / away 1.227. Data: 27 St Patrick's Athl. games / 26 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 35%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Shamrock Rovers 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shamrock Rovers (2.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: St Patrick's Athl. 50% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 Sep 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 / Shamrock Rovers 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.242 / def 1.008 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.001 / def 0.943 | league avg home 1.097 / away 1.227 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 September 2021 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 0 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 38% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.24) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.72
35%
2.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.52
1.24
Shamrock Rovers xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
2.82
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
11%
9.15
10%
10.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 9.9 | 6.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.8 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.24 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 26 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.88 PPG on a 15W 4D 7L record — W-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 17W 5D 4L from 26 games, 2.15 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.88 PPG, Shamrock Rovers on 2.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 2.54 PPG from 13 outings (11W 0D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.88 PPG overall — St Patrick's Athl. are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 9W 1D 3L from 13 away games — 2.15 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.73 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.65 scored and 0.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: St Patrick's Athl. have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 26 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 15W 4D 7L in their last 26 games (1.88 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 17W 5D 4L in their last 26 (2.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (2.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 2.54 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 2.15 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Shamrock Rovers go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
St Patrick's Athl.
2
Draws
5
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 46%, Shamrock Rovers 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 38% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 46% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 38% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 46% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shamrock Rovers defy the odds to beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 0-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.28 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.24 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. St Patrick's Athl. fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.24 / defence 1.01 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.94, drawn from 27/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 38% | Draw 27% | Shamrock Rovers 35%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Shamrock Rovers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 54%, Shamrock Rovers 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.88 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 2.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shamrock Rovers win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.