Volos NFC 3-0 Panserraikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Volos NFC at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Volos NFC vs Panserraikos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Volos NFC host Panserraikos at Panthessaliko Stadio in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 28 April 2025 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Volos NFC — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panserraikos have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Panserraikos have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Volos NFC 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Volos NFC, 1 for Panserraikos and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Volos NFC trading profile (63 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Panserraikos trading profile (63 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 52% versus Panserraikos 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 51% | Panserraikos 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.27 xG and Panserraikos 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.804 / defence 1.200 | Panserraikos attack 0.930 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.093. Panserraikos bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Volos NFC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 52 Volos NFC games / 52 Panserraikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 35%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.63 | Draw 3.70 | Panserraikos 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Volos NFC at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. This conflicts with form data: Volos NFC 40% | Panserraikos 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Panserraikos | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Monday 28 Apr 2025, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 38% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Volos NFC 1.27 / Panserraikos 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.804 / def 1.200 | Panserraikos attack 0.930 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.093 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Panserraikos xG
51%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kick off?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 28 April 2025 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Volos NFC 3 - 0 Panserraikos.
Where is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos part of?
Volos NFC vs Panserraikos is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 38% chance of winning, Panserraikos a 35% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Volos NFC and Panserraikos will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Panserraikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Record (5 meetings): Volos NFC 2W | Draws 2 | Panserraikos 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in?
Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Volos NFC's attack rating (0.80) and Panserraikos's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.27 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Panserraikos's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.9%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
38%
2.65
27%
3.70
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.49
1.22
Panserraikos xG
2.65
38%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
11%
8.96
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 10.1 | 6.1 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.8 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Panserraikos expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.22 for Panserraikos, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Panserraikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 63 games, going 16W 15D 32L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-D-W-W.
On the other side, Panserraikos sit at 1.13 PPG from 63 outings (18W 17D 28L), a run that reads W-D-L-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 7W 7D 16L across 30 games on their own ground, a 0.93 PPG return.
Away from home, Panserraikos have taken 0.73 points per game from 30 outings (6W 4D 20L).
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Panserraikos are on 1.14 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Current Season
Panserraikos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Panserraikos in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 16W 15D 32L in their last 63 games (1.00 PPG), while Panserraikos have gone 18W 17D 28L in their last 63 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Panserraikos away?
Volos NFC's home record (0.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 0.93 PPG; Panserraikos away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Panserraikos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 22 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2025, when Volos NFC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Volos NFC's record when hosting Panserraikos specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
3
Panserraikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
From 9 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Panserraikos have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Panserraikos last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2026, when Panserraikos 2-1 Volos NFC.
Who has won more matches between Volos NFC and Panserraikos?
Volos NFC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 60%, Panserraikos 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Volos NFC) and 53% (Panserraikos).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC have failed to score in 30% of games; Panserraikos in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Panserraikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Panserraikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 40% of Panserraikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Panserraikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Volos NFC's recent games and 53% of Panserraikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Panserraikos tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Panserraikos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Volos NFC run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC beat Panserraikos 3-0 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Relegation Round - 5, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.27 xG and Panserraikos 1.22 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Panserraikos landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.80 / defence 1.20 against Panserraikos attack 0.93 / defence 1.25, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 38% | Draw 27% | Panserraikos 35%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 51%, Panserraikos 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Panserraikos's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.00 PPG, Panserraikos 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Volos NFC win broke the near-deadlock. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.63 average — tighter than their form line. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.