PAS Giannina 1-3 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAS Giannina face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
PAS Giannina welcome PAOK to Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1 (matchday 5). Kick-off is Sunday 24 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, PAS Giannina stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
PAS Giannina's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
PAOK — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (PAS Giannina) versus 1.40 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for PAS Giannina, 3 for PAOK and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 6 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 25 Feb 2023, ended PAS Giannina 0–0 PAOK — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
PAS Giannina trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
PAOK trading profile (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 57% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 54% versus PAOK 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 46% | PAOK 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: PAS Giannina surrender their half-time lead 50% of the time, while PAOK have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 50% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.29 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.911 / defence 0.865 | PAOK attack 0.890 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.652 / away 1.071. Data: built from PAS Giannina's last 30 games and PAOK's last 30.
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 36% | PAOK 20%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.29 | Draw 2.75 | PAOK 5.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (PAS Giannina's last 10 home games and PAOK's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAS Giannina 20% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 5 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 24 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 36% | PAOK 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG PAS Giannina 1.29 / PAOK 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.911 / def 0.865 | PAOK attack 0.890 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.652 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
0.82
PAOK xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ PAS Giannina vs PAOK FAQs
What time does PAS Giannina vs PAOK kick off?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Sunday 24 September 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
PAS Giannina 1 - 3 PAOK.
Where is PAS Giannina vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs PAOK part of?
PAS Giannina vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 5) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 44% chance of winning, PAOK a 20% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAS Giannina and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will PAS Giannina vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.91x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 1.29 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 0.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from PAS Giannina's last 30 games and PAOK's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.9%), 0-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
44%
2.29
36%
2.75
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.12
0.82
PAOK xG
2.29
44%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
19%
5.21
5%
18.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 9.9 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 12.8 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ PAS Giannina vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 0.82 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina come into this having played 37 games, going 8W 15D 14L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-L-D.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.81 PPG from 37 outings (19W 10D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.76 PPG clear of PAS Giannina — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
PAS Giannina's home form reads 6W 6D 6L across their last 18 home games, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.67 points per game from their last 18 away games (8W 6D 4L).
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.59 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
PAS Giannina (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
PAS Giannina
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ PAS Giannina vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are PAS Giannina and PAOK in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 15D 14L in their last 37 games (1.05 PPG), while PAOK have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.33 PPG; PAOK away: 1.67 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 14 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: PAOK have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 15 Dec 2021, when PAOK won PAS Giannina 0-4 PAOK.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
PAS Giannina
1
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ PAS Giannina vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, PAS Giannina have won 2, PAOK have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 January 2024: PAOK 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 50%, PAOK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAS Giannina) and 44% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 39%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ PAS Giannina vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in PAS Giannina and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 44% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are PAS Giannina and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 44% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 83% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over PAS Giannina.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat PAS Giannina 1-3 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.29 xG and PAOK 0.82 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. PAOK outscored their 0.82 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.91 / defence 0.86 against PAOK attack 0.89 / defence 0.86, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 44% | Draw 36% | PAOK 20%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 44%. Instead the game produced a PAOK win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 46%, PAOK 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
PAOK's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.