PAOK 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates PAOK at 60% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as PAOK face Aris Thessalonikis.

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Analysis

Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1 (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, PAOK have gone 6W 1D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Aris Thessalonikis's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Aris Thessalonikis away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for PAOK, 1.30 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, PAOK edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 30 Apr 2023, ended PAOK 3–2 Aris Thessalonikis — a PAOK win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.

Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 39 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 41% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 49% | Aris Thessalonikis 62%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.95 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.099 / defence 0.843 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.937 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.178. Data: built from PAOK's last 29 games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 29. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 17%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.66 | Draw 4.30 | Aris Thessalonikis 6.05. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (60%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Aris Thessalonikis's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: PAOK 40% (last 10 home games) | Aris Thessalonikis 60% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (PAOK 29 games, Aris Thessalonikis 29) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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