PAOK 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours PAOK (59%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as PAOK face Lamia.

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Analysis & Preview

Lamia travel to Stadio Toumbas to take on PAOK in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 3). The game is scheduled for Wednesday 3 April 2024 at 18:30 UK time.

Form Guide

PAOK — last 10 games: 7W 1D 2L, averaging 2.20 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, PAOK have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Across their last 10 games, Lamia have recorded 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Lamia's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

On current form, PAOK have the edge — a 0.90 PPG advantage (2.20 vs 1.30) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.

H2H Record

The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of PAOK: 6 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for Lamia, with 0 draws.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Mar 2024, ended PAOK 2–0 Lamia — a PAOK win.

The head-to-head data gives PAOK an edge — 6 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Data

PAOK trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.

Lamia trading profile (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 57% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 57% | Lamia 52%). Note also that Lamia surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while PAOK recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 2.24 xG and Lamia 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.253 / defence 0.834 | Lamia attack 1.077 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. PAOK carry an above-average attack rating of 1.253 — their 2.24 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from PAOK's last 52 games and Lamia's last 52.

Result probabilities: PAOK 59% | Draw 23% | Lamia 18%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.70 | Draw 4.36 | Lamia 5.49. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (59%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS Yes probability 65% | Total xG 3.47. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.47 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% — both xG figures (2.24 / 1.22) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates PAOK as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.47 combined xG gives a 67% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (PAOK's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: PAOK 40% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 70% (last 10 away games).

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