Lamia 1-5 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Lamia face Olympiakos Piraeus.

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Analysis & Preview

Olympiakos Piraeus travel to Dimotiko Athlitiko Kentro Lamias to take on Lamia in Super League 1 (Championship Round - 4). The game is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Lamia stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Lamia's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 home games (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Olympiakos Piraeus — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Olympiakos Piraeus — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

Despite the home advantage, Olympiakos Piraeus have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 1 for Lamia.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Jan 2024, ended Lamia 1–0 Olympiakos Piraeus — a Lamia win.

Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.

In-Play Data

Lamia trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lamia 52% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lamia 53% | Olympiakos Piraeus 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lamia surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Olympiakos Piraeus have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Lamia 1.12 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lamia attack 0.899 / defence 1.091 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.149 / defence 0.763. League average goals — home 1.635 / away 1.360. Olympiakos Piraeus bring a tight defence (rating 0.763, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lamia's projected output down. Data: built from Lamia's last 52 games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 52.

Result probabilities: Lamia 23% | Draw 28% | Olympiakos Piraeus 49%. Fair-value odds: Lamia 4.37 | Draw 3.54 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.05. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lamia's last 10 home games and Olympiakos Piraeus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Lamia 60% (last 10 home games) | Olympiakos Piraeus 50% (last 10 away games).

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