OFI 1-0 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as OFI face PAOK.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
PAOK travel to Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis to take on OFI in Super League 1 (matchday 3). The game is scheduled for Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, OFI have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
OFI at home: 3W 5D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
PAOK — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
PAOK's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.80 PPG (OFI) versus 1.60 (PAOK). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, OFI have won 0, PAOK 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Jan 2023, ended OFI 0–0 PAOK — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
OFI trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
PAOK trading profile (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 88% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; they lead at the break 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — OFI 46% versus PAOK 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (OFI 46% | PAOK 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects OFI 1.53 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: OFI attack 1.067 / defence 1.228 | PAOK attack 1.079 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.607 / away 0.768. OFI's defence rating of 1.228 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing PAOK's projected output up. Data: built from OFI's last 28 games and PAOK's last 28. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 33% | PAOK 22%. Fair-value odds: OFI 2.20 | Draw 3.03 | PAOK 4.63. OFI hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: OFI 50% (last 10 home games) | PAOK 40% (last 10 away games).
The Poisson model's sample (OFI 28 games, PAOK 28) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: OFI vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 3 | Venue: Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis • Kick-off: Sunday 3 September 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: OFI 45% | Draw 33% | PAOK 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% (Under 53%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG OFI 1.53 / PAOK 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: OFI attack 1.067 / def 1.228 | PAOK attack 1.079 / def 0.891 | league avg home 1.607 / away 0.768 • Poisson stance: OFI (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
OFI xG
Expected Goals
1.02
PAOK xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ OFI vs PAOK FAQs
What time does OFI vs PAOK kick off?
OFI vs PAOK kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 3 September 2023 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What was the final score in OFI vs PAOK?
OFI 1 - 0 PAOK.
Where is OFI vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis.
What competition is OFI vs PAOK part of?
OFI vs PAOK is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 3) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win OFI vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives OFI a 45% chance of winning, PAOK a 22% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in OFI vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both OFI and PAOK will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will OFI vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (53%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from OFI's attack rating (1.07) and PAOK's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.53 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, PAOK's attack versus OFI's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from OFI's last 28 games and PAOK's last 28, a sample that still includes some older results.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
45%
2.20
33%
3.03
22%
4.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
OFI xG
Total xG
2.55
1.02
PAOK xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
4.63
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
22%
4.60
Win to Nil
16%
6.10
5%
21.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 6.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ OFI vs PAOK Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for OFI vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are OFI and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for OFI and 1.02 for PAOK, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for OFI vs PAOK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
OFI come into this having played 35 games, going 11W 11D 13L for 1.26 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-L.
On the other side, PAOK sit at 1.89 PPG from 35 outings (19W 9D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
PAOK carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.63 PPG clear of OFI — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
OFI's home form reads 4W 7D 6L across their last 17 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, PAOK have taken 1.76 points per game from their last 17 away games (8W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
OFI are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 1.69 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
OFI (Home) vs PAOK (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
OFI
Early Season
PAOK
Early Season
❓ OFI vs PAOK Form FAQs
What form are OFI and PAOK in coming into this match?
OFI have gone 11W 11D 13L in their last 35 games (1.26 PPG), while PAOK have gone 19W 9D 7L in their last 35 (1.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — OFI at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — OFI at home: 1.12 PPG; PAOK away: 1.76 PPG.
Have OFI or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
OFI have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, PAOK in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from January 2022. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent was as recently as 25 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 8 Feb 2025, when PAOK won OFI 0-5 PAOK.
OFI's record when hosting PAOK specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
OFI
2
Draws
5
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ OFI vs PAOK H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between OFI and PAOK?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, OFI have won 3, PAOK have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did OFI and PAOK last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 October 2026: OFI 2-1 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between OFI and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — OFI 53%, PAOK 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (OFI) and 47% (PAOK).
On the defensive side: PAOK in 41%; OFI have failed to score in 41% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = OFI home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ OFI vs PAOK Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in OFI and PAOK matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of OFI's recent matches and 47% of PAOK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are OFI and PAOK matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of OFI's recent games and 47% of PAOK's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do OFI and PAOK matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of OFI's recent matches and 88% of PAOK's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out PAOK 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat PAOK 1-0 at Stadio Thódoros Vardinoyánnis, Regular Season - 3, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting OFI 1.53 xG and PAOK 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. PAOK landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of OFI attack 1.07 / defence 1.23 against PAOK attack 1.08 / defence 0.89, drawn from 28/28 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it OFI 45% | Draw 33% | PAOK 22%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (OFI 46%, PAOK 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
OFI's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
PAOK's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.26. Form was overturned, with OFI winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.