Panserraikos 0-2 PAOK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates PAOK at 69% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs PAOK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D D L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos's home record at Dimotiko Stadio Serron: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
PAOK's overall Super League 1 record this term: 7W 1D 2L from 10 games (2.20 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, PAOK are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Panserraikos have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, PAOK in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Panserraikos 0W, PAOK 1W, 0D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Nov 2023, ended 0–5 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Panserraikos — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
PAOK — key trading statistics (24 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; they lead at the break 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 46% versus PAOK 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 42% | PAOK 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.89 xG and PAOK 2.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.705 / defence 1.083 | PAOK attack 1.630 / defence 0.788. League average goals — home 1.604 / away 1.360. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.705 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. PAOK's defence strength of 0.788 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. PAOK have an above-average attack strength of 1.630 — the away xG of 2.40 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 24 Panserraikos games / 50 PAOK games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 11% | Draw 20% | PAOK 69%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 9.09 | Draw 5.00 | PAOK 1.45. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (69%) — a 58pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAOK at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Panserraikos 60% | PAOK 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs PAOK | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Feb 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 11% | Draw 20% | PAOK 69% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 55% | xG Panserraikos 0.89 / PAOK 2.40 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.705 / def 1.083 | PAOK attack 1.630 / def 0.788 | league avg home 1.604 / away 1.360 • Poisson stance: PAOK (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
2.40
PAOK xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs PAOK kick off?
Panserraikos vs PAOK kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Panserraikos 0 - 2 PAOK.
Where is Panserraikos vs PAOK being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs PAOK part of?
Panserraikos vs PAOK is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 11% chance of winning, PAOK a 69% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Panserraikos and PAOK will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs PAOK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAOK?
Record (1 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 0 | PAOK 1W.
What form are Panserraikos and PAOK in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-D-L-L-D. PAOK (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.70x the league average against PAOK's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 0.89 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — PAOK's attack (1.63x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 2.40.
These ratings are built from 24/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 1-1 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
11%
9.32
20%
5.04
69%
1.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
3.29
2.40
PAOK xG
9.32
11%
Home win
5.04
20%
Draw
1.44
69%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
9%
11.03
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
1%
102.84
28%
3.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.9 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 5.1 | 2.5 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.6 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 2 | 1.5 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | – | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.7%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and PAOK expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Panserraikos and 2.40 for PAOK, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs PAOK?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 24 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 5W 9D 10L record — D-D-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PAOK's form line: 17W 3D 4L from 24 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panserraikos.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (3W 6D 2L).
On the road, PAOK have gone 7W 1D 3L from 11 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Panserraikos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; PAOK are on 2.58 scored and 0.88 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
PAOK
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and PAOK in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 5W 9D 10L in their last 24 games (1.00 PPG), while PAOK have gone 17W 3D 4L in their last 24 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or PAOK away?
PAOK's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 1.36 PPG; PAOK away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or PAOK been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, PAOK in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
PAOK go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: PAOK won 5-0 on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against PAOK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
0
Draws
6
PAOK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and PAOK?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, PAOK have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and PAOK last play each other?
They last met on 1 February 2026, when PAOK 4-1 Panserraikos.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and PAOK?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 64%, PAOK 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Panserraikos) and 73% (PAOK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 64% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / PAOK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play PAOK?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Panserraikos's games and 64% of PAOK's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs PAOK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Panserraikos's matches and 73% of PAOK's.
Do Panserraikos and PAOK tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, PAOK in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Panserraikos.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Panserraikos 0-2 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.89 xG and PAOK 2.40 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Panserraikos fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.70 / defence 1.08 against PAOK attack 1.63 / defence 0.79, drawn from 24/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 11% | Draw 20% | PAOK 69%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 42%, PAOK 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PAOK's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.