Atromitos 3-1 Lamia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Lamia at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atromitos vs Lamia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Peristeriou plays host to Atromitos versus Lamia in Super League 1 (matchday 25). Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form
Atromitos (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Atromitos have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Lamia's record over their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
When travelling, Lamia have posted 3W 4D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Lamia are the stronger side — 0.90 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Atromitos, 1 for Lamia and 5 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Nov 2023, ended Atromitos 3–3 Lamia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atromitos — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Lamia — key trading statistics (last 57 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atromitos 53% versus Lamia 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atromitos 35% | Lamia 51%). Note also that Lamia surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Atromitos recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atromitos 1.20 xG and Lamia 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atromitos attack 0.741 / defence 1.095 | Lamia attack 1.146 / defence 1.030. League average goals — home 1.574 / away 1.352. Atromitos's attack rating of 0.741 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Data: built from Atromitos's last 50 games and Lamia's last 50.
Result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 28% | Lamia 47%. Fair-value odds: Atromitos 3.99 | Draw 3.57 | Lamia 2.13. Lamia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lamia as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lamia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Atromitos's last 10 home games and Lamia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atromitos 50% (last 10 home games) | Lamia 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atromitos vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, matchday 25 | Venue: Stadio Peristeriou • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 February 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atromitos 25% | Draw 28% | Lamia 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Atromitos 1.20 / Lamia 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Atromitos attack 0.741 / def 1.095 | Lamia attack 1.146 / def 1.030 | league avg home 1.574 / away 1.352 • Poisson stance: Lamia (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Atromitos xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Lamia xG
59%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atromitos vs Lamia FAQs
What time does Atromitos vs Lamia kick off?
Atromitos vs Lamia kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Wednesday 28 February 2024 at Stadio Peristeriou.
What was the final score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Atromitos 3 - 1 Lamia.
Where is Atromitos vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Peristeriou.
What competition is Atromitos vs Lamia part of?
Atromitos vs Lamia is a Super League 1 fixture (matchday 25) (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Atromitos a 25% chance of winning, Lamia a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Lamia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Atromitos and Lamia will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atromitos vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Atromitos's attack at 0.74x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lamia's attack (1.15x) against Atromitos's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from Atromitos's last 50 games and Lamia's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lamia Win
25%
3.99
28%
3.57
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Atromitos xG
Total xG
2.90
1.70
Lamia xG
3.99
25%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
18%
5.45
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
5%
21.72
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 9.4 | 7.9 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.2 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.8 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.7 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atromitos vs Lamia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Atromitos and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Atromitos and 1.70 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Atromitos vs Lamia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 57 outings, Atromitos have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 14W 20D 23L record — L-L-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Lamia's form line: 14W 21D 22L from 57 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.09 PPG for Atromitos against 1.11 for Lamia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atromitos have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 29 home games (10W 12D 7L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 14D 11L from their last 29 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atromitos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Atromitos are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.00 scored and 1.61 conceded.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atromitos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
Atromitos (Home) vs Lamia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atromitos
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Atromitos vs Lamia Form FAQs
What form are Atromitos and Lamia in coming into this match?
Atromitos have gone 14W 20D 23L in their last 57 games (1.09 PPG), while Lamia have gone 14W 21D 22L in their last 57 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atromitos at home or Lamia away?
Atromitos's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atromitos at home: 1.45 PPG; Lamia away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Atromitos and Lamia, the earliest from October 2021. All of them came in Super League 1. The most recent in our data was on 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Atromitos have won the most recent 3 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atromitos won Lamia 0-3 Atromitos on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atromitos have gone 3W 1D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lamia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Atromitos
5
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Atromitos vs Lamia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atromitos and Lamia?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atromitos have won 4, Lamia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Atromitos and Lamia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 January 2025: Lamia 0-3 Atromitos.
Who has won more matches between Atromitos and Lamia?
Atromitos have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Lamia see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atromitos 45%, Lamia 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Atromitos) and 48% (Lamia).
On the defensive side: Atromitos keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Atromitos have failed to score in 34% of games; Lamia in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atromitos home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atromitos vs Lamia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atromitos and Lamia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Atromitos's recent matches and 48% of Lamia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atromitos and Lamia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Atromitos's recent games and 48% of Lamia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atromitos and Lamia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 66% of Atromitos's recent matches and 59% of Lamia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Atromitos cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Lamia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atromitos beat Lamia 3-1 at Stadio Peristeriou, Regular Season - 25, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atromitos 1.20 xG and Lamia 1.70 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Atromitos beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atromitos attack 0.74 / defence 1.09 against Lamia attack 1.15 / defence 1.03, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atromitos 25% | Draw 28% | Lamia 47%, with Lamia to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Atromitos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atromitos 35%, Lamia 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atromitos's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lamia's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atromitos 1.09 PPG, Lamia 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atromitos win broke the near-deadlock. Atromitos (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm. Lamia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.69 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.