Panserraikos 0-1 Olympiakos Piraeus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Dimotiko Stadio Serron plays host to Panserraikos versus Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Monday 18 December 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Panserraikos have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panserraikos at Dimotiko Stadio Serron this season: 3W 1D 0L from 4 home games — 2.50 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 75% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Super League 1 outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W L W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Olympiakos Piraeus away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On a straight form reading, Olympiakos Piraeus are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Panserraikos, 1 for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 0–2 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Panserraikos half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 31% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (13 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 46% versus Olympiakos Piraeus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 38% | Olympiakos Piraeus 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 1.20 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.959 / defence 1.138 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.278 / defence 0.761. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.141. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence strength of 0.761 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Olympiakos Piraeus have an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 13 Panserraikos games / 39 Olympiakos Piraeus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 26% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Olympiakos Piraeus 2.13. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.87. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.87 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Olympiakos Piraeus at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.87 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 75% | Olympiakos Piraeus 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Monday 18 Dec 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 26% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Panserraikos 1.20 / Olympiakos Piraeus 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.959 / def 1.138 | Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.278 / def 0.761 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kick off?
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 18 December 2023 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Panserraikos 0 - 1 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Where is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus part of?
Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 26% chance of winning, Olympiakos Piraeus a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Record (1 meetings): Panserraikos 0W | Draws 0 | Olympiakos Piraeus 1W.
What form are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Panserraikos's attack at 0.96x the league average against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Olympiakos Piraeus's attack (1.28x) against Panserraikos's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 13/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
26%
3.81
27%
3.68
47%
2.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.87
1.66
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.15
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
5%
20.06
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.7 | 9.5 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.4 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.9 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.8 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.66 for Olympiakos Piraeus, a combined total of 2.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Panserraikos's recent record stands at 3W 4D 6L from 13 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Olympiakos Piraeus, meanwhile, have gone 9W 3D 1L across 13 games — 2.31 PPG, with W-L-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Olympiakos Piraeus by 1.31 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Panserraikos heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Panserraikos have managed 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — 2.50 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — Panserraikos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Olympiakos Piraeus's away record stands at 3W 1D 0L across 4 trips, a 2.50 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Panserraikos are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.92 conceded per game recently; Olympiakos Piraeus are on 2.62 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus in 54% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 3W 4D 6L in their last 13 games (1.00 PPG), while Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 9W 3D 1L in their last 13 (2.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Olympiakos Piraeus away?
Panserraikos's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 2.50 PPG; Olympiakos Piraeus away: 2.50 PPG.
Have Panserraikos or Olympiakos Piraeus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panserraikos have kept a clean sheet in 8% of their recent games, Olympiakos Piraeus in 54%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 5-0 on 13 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Panserraikos have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Olympiakos Piraeus — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Panserraikos
0
Draws
6
Olympiakos Piraeus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
From 6 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 0, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Panserraikos 1-2 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 75%, Olympiakos Piraeus 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Panserraikos) and 50% (Olympiakos Piraeus).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Olympiakos Piraeus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Olympiakos Piraeus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Panserraikos's recent matches and 25% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panserraikos vs Olympiakos Piraeus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Panserraikos's recent games and 50% of Olympiakos Piraeus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Olympiakos Piraeus tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Olympiakos Piraeus in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Panserraikos 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panserraikos 0-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 1.20 xG and Olympiakos Piraeus 1.66 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Panserraikos fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.96 / defence 1.14 against Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.28 / defence 0.76, drawn from 13/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 26% | Draw 27% | Olympiakos Piraeus 47%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 38%, Olympiakos Piraeus 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (13 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (13 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.31 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Panserraikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.25 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.