Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Aris Thessalonikis at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees OFI travel to Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis to take on Aris Thessalonikis. The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 December 2023, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Aris Thessalonikis stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Aris Thessalonikis are significantly better at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis than their overall form suggests.
OFI — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Aris Thessalonikis are in the better shape of the two on current Super League 1 data — 0.80 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Aris Thessalonikis, 1 for OFI and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2023, ended 2–3 with OFI winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Aris Thessalonikis in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
OFI in-play tendencies (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Aris Thessalonikis 46% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Aris Thessalonikis 54% | OFI 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Aris Thessalonikis 1.80 xG and OFI 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.002 / defence 0.889 | OFI attack 0.797 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.627 / away 1.079. Data: 39 Aris Thessalonikis games / 39 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 27% | OFI 13%. Fair-value odds: Aris Thessalonikis 1.67 | Draw 3.70 | OFI 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Aris Thessalonikis are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | OFI 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Dec 2023, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 27% | OFI 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Aris Thessalonikis 1.80 / OFI 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.002 / def 0.889 | OFI attack 0.797 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.627 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Aris Thessalonikis (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Expected Goals
0.76
OFI xG
47%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kick off?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 17 December 2023 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What was the final score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Aris Thessalonikis 1 - 0 OFI.
Where is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis.
What competition is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI part of?
Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Aris Thessalonikis a 60% chance of winning, OFI a 13% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Aris Thessalonikis the favourite.
Will both teams score in Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Aris Thessalonikis and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
Record (1 meetings): Aris Thessalonikis 0W | Draws 0 | OFI 1W.
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in?
Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. OFI (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Aris Thessalonikis's attack at 1.00x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Aris Thessalonikis's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 39/39 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.5%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Aris Thessalonikis Win
60%
1.67
27%
3.76
13%
7.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.5%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Aris Thessalonikis xG
Total xG
2.57
0.76
OFI xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
7.51
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
28%
3.57
2%
45.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 5.9 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 10.6 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.5 | 9.5 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Aris Thessalonikis and 0.76 for OFI, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Aris Thessalonikis's recent record stands at 20W 7D 19L from 46 games, a 1.46 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
OFI, meanwhile, have gone 13W 17D 16L across 46 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-L-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Aris Thessalonikis on 1.46 PPG, OFI on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Aris Thessalonikis have managed 14W 2D 6L from 22 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.46 PPG overall — Aris Thessalonikis are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
OFI's away record stands at 7W 7D 8L across 22 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Aris Thessalonikis come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Aris Thessalonikis are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.09 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 46 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Aris Thessalonikis and OFI in coming into this match?
Aris Thessalonikis have gone 20W 7D 19L in their last 46 games (1.46 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 17D 16L in their last 46 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Aris Thessalonikis at home or OFI away?
Aris Thessalonikis's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Aris Thessalonikis at home: 2.00 PPG; OFI away: 1.27 PPG.
Have Aris Thessalonikis or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, OFI in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Aris Thessalonikis have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Oct 2025, when OFI won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Aris Thessalonikis's record when hosting OFI specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Aris Thessalonikis
1
Draws
5
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Aris Thessalonikis have won 4, OFI have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Aris Thessalonikis and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 3-1 OFI.
Who has won more matches between Aris Thessalonikis and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Aris Thessalonikis 54%, OFI 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Aris Thessalonikis) and 50% (OFI). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Aris Thessalonikis keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; OFI in 32%; OFI in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Aris Thessalonikis home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Aris Thessalonikis play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Aris Thessalonikis's recent matches and 46% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Aris Thessalonikis vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Aris Thessalonikis's matches and 50% of OFI's.
Do Aris Thessalonikis and OFI tend to score early?
Aris Thessalonikis have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, OFI in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Aris Thessalonikis edge out OFI 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat OFI 1-0 at Stadio Harilaou Kleánthis Vikelídis, Regular Season - 14, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Aris Thessalonikis 1.80 xG and OFI 0.76 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.00 / defence 0.89 against OFI attack 0.80 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Aris Thessalonikis 60% | Draw 27% | OFI 13%, with Aris Thessalonikis to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Aris Thessalonikis 54%, OFI 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
OFI's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Aris Thessalonikis 1.46 PPG, OFI 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.91 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.