Panetolikos 1-0 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates OFI at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Panetolikos vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 19 as Panetolikos welcome OFI to Stadio Panetolikou. Kick-off is set for Sunday 19 January 2025 at 14:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Panetolikos have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Panetolikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Panetolikou, Panetolikos have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
OFI — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panetolikos 0.90 PPG, OFI 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Panetolikos, 3 for OFI and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 2–1 with Panetolikos winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Panetolikos in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
OFI in-play and half-time data (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panetolikos 43% versus OFI 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panetolikos 43% | OFI 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panetolikos 0.94 xG and OFI 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panetolikos attack 0.801 / defence 0.993 | OFI attack 1.017 / defence 0.970. League average goals — home 1.214 / away 1.166. Data: 44 Panetolikos games / 44 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panetolikos 29% | Draw 30% | OFI 41%. Fair-value odds: Panetolikos 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates OFI as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on OFI offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Panetolikos 30% | OFI 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panetolikos vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Panetolikou • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Jan 2025, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panetolikos 29% | Draw 30% | OFI 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Panetolikos 0.94 / OFI 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Panetolikos attack 0.801 / def 0.993 | OFI attack 1.017 / def 0.970 | league avg home 1.214 / away 1.166 • Poisson stance: OFI (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Panetolikos xG
Expected Goals
1.18
OFI xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panetolikos vs OFI kick off?
Panetolikos vs OFI kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 19 January 2025 at Stadio Panetolikou.
What was the final score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Panetolikos 1 - 0 OFI.
Where is Panetolikos vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Panetolikou.
What competition is Panetolikos vs OFI part of?
Panetolikos vs OFI is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives Panetolikos a 29% chance of winning, OFI a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Panetolikos and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will Panetolikos vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
Record (7 meetings): Panetolikos 3W | Draws 1 | OFI 3W.
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in?
Panetolikos (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. OFI (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panetolikos's attack at 0.80x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, OFI's attack versus Panetolikos's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
29%
3.42
30%
3.37
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Panetolikos xG
Total xG
2.12
1.18
OFI xG
3.42
29%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
39%
2.57
Win to Nil
9%
11.11
16%
6.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.3 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panetolikos and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Panetolikos and 1.18 for OFI, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Panetolikos vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panetolikos come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 14D 22L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-L. The sample for Panetolikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.16 PPG from 51 outings (13W 20D 18L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-D across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Panetolikos on 1.16 PPG, OFI on 1.16. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Panetolikos's home form reads 9W 4D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 0.92 points per game from 25 outings (4W 11D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Panetolikos are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.18 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panetolikos
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panetolikos and OFI in coming into this match?
Panetolikos have gone 15W 14D 22L in their last 51 games (1.16 PPG), while OFI have gone 13W 20D 18L in their last 51 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panetolikos at home or OFI away?
Panetolikos's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panetolikos at home: 1.24 PPG; OFI away: 0.92 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Jan 2023, when OFI won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panetolikos's record when hosting OFI specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Panetolikos
1
Draws
4
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panetolikos and OFI?
From 10 meetings on record, Panetolikos have won 5, OFI have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Panetolikos and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when OFI 1-0 Panetolikos.
Who has won more matches between Panetolikos and OFI?
Panetolikos have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panetolikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panetolikos 36%, OFI 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Panetolikos) and 60% (OFI).
On the defensive side: Panetolikos keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Panetolikos have failed to score in 36% of games; OFI in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panetolikos home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panetolikos play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Panetolikos's recent matches and 52% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panetolikos vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Panetolikos's recent games and 60% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panetolikos and OFI tend to score early?
Panetolikos have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, OFI in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panetolikos defy the odds to beat OFI 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panetolikos beat OFI 1-0 at Stadio Panetolikou, Regular Season - 19, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panetolikos 0.94 xG and OFI 1.18 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. OFI landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panetolikos attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against OFI attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panetolikos 29% | Draw 30% | OFI 41%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Panetolikos win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panetolikos 43%, OFI 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panetolikos's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
OFI's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Panetolikos 1.16 PPG, OFI 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Panetolikos win broke the near-deadlock. Panetolikos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. OFI (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.80 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.