Panathinaikos 1-1 Atromitos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Panathinaikos at 35% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panathinaikos vs Atromitos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panathinaikos host Atromitos at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis in Super League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Panathinaikos — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Panathinaikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Panathinaikos at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Atromitos stand at 5W 0D 5L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Atromitos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Atromitos have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Panathinaikos 1.90 PPG, Atromitos 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Panathinaikos hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 6 previous encounters compared to 1 for Atromitos, with 0 draws in between.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Dec 2023, ended 2–3 with Atromitos winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Panathinaikos and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Panathinaikos in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Atromitos in-play tendencies (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panathinaikos 49% versus Atromitos 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panathinaikos 58% | Atromitos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panathinaikos 1.13 xG and Atromitos 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panathinaikos attack 0.905 / defence 0.733 | Atromitos attack 1.190 / defence 0.982. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.238. Panathinaikos's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Panathinaikos games / 38 Atromitos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panathinaikos 35% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 33%. Fair-value odds: Panathinaikos 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Atromitos 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Panathinaikos at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Panathinaikos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Panathinaikos 50% | Atromitos 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panathinaikos vs Atromitos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panathinaikos 35% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Panathinaikos 1.13 / Atromitos 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Panathinaikos attack 0.905 / def 0.733 | Atromitos attack 1.190 / def 0.982 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Panathinaikos (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Panathinaikos xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Atromitos xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panathinaikos vs Atromitos kick off?
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What was the final score in Panathinaikos vs Atromitos?
Panathinaikos 1 - 1 Atromitos.
Where is Panathinaikos vs Atromitos being played?
The match is being played at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis.
What competition is Panathinaikos vs Atromitos part of?
Panathinaikos vs Atromitos is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panathinaikos vs Atromitos?
Our statistical model gives Panathinaikos a 35% chance of winning, Atromitos a 33% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Panathinaikos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panathinaikos vs Atromitos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Panathinaikos and Atromitos will score (BTTS).
Will Panathinaikos vs Atromitos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Atromitos?
Record (6 meetings): Panathinaikos 5W | Draws 0 | Atromitos 1W.
What form are Panathinaikos and Atromitos in?
Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Atromitos (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Panathinaikos vs Atromitos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Panathinaikos's attack at 0.91x the league average against Atromitos's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Atromitos's attack versus Panathinaikos's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Panathinaikos Win
35%
2.82
32%
3.16
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Panathinaikos xG
Total xG
2.21
1.08
Atromitos xG
2.82
35%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 11.9 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.4 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panathinaikos vs Atromitos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Panathinaikos and Atromitos expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Panathinaikos and 1.08 for Atromitos, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Panathinaikos vs Atromitos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Panathinaikos's recent record stands at 24W 11D 10L from 45 games, a 1.84 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for Panathinaikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atromitos, meanwhile, have gone 12W 15D 18L across 45 games — 1.13 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Atromitos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Panathinaikos by 0.71 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Atromitos heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Panathinaikos have managed 13W 5D 3L from 21 games — 2.10 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Atromitos's away record stands at 5W 7D 9L across 21 trips, a 1.05 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Panathinaikos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panathinaikos are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Atromitos are on 1.20 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atromitos in 60%.
Defensively: Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panathinaikos
Blended
Atromitos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panathinaikos and Atromitos in coming into this match?
Panathinaikos have gone 24W 11D 10L in their last 45 games (1.84 PPG), while Atromitos have gone 12W 15D 18L in their last 45 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panathinaikos at home or Atromitos away?
Panathinaikos's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panathinaikos at home: 2.10 PPG; Atromitos away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Panathinaikos or Atromitos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Panathinaikos have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Atromitos in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2023, when Panathinaikos won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panathinaikos's record when hosting Atromitos specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Panathinaikos
3
Draws
1
Atromitos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panathinaikos and Atromitos?
From 10 meetings on record, Panathinaikos have won 6, Atromitos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Panathinaikos and Atromitos last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Atromitos 0-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Panathinaikos and Atromitos?
Panathinaikos have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
Atromitos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panathinaikos 43%, Atromitos 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Panathinaikos) and 57% (Atromitos).
On the defensive side: Panathinaikos keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Atromitos in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panathinaikos home games / Atromitos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panathinaikos play Atromitos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Panathinaikos's recent matches and 57% of Atromitos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Panathinaikos vs Atromitos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Panathinaikos's recent games and 57% of Atromitos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panathinaikos and Atromitos tend to score early?
Panathinaikos have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Atromitos in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Panathinaikos and Atromitos share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Regular Season - 13, as Panathinaikos and Atromitos drew 1-1 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panathinaikos 1.13 xG and Atromitos 1.08 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panathinaikos attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Atromitos attack 1.19 / defence 0.98, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panathinaikos 35% | Draw 32% | Atromitos 33%, with Panathinaikos to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panathinaikos 58%, Atromitos 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panathinaikos's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Atromitos's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Panathinaikos arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.