Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 39% as Olympiakos Piraeus take on Panathinaikos.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Panathinaikos make the trip to Karaiskakis Stadium to face Olympiakos Piraeus in Super League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 11 October 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Olympiakos Piraeus have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus at Karaiskakis Stadium this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Karaiskakis Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Panathinaikos's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Panathinaikos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Panathinaikos have posted 6W 2D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.70 for Panathinaikos. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Panathinaikos in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Olympiakos Piraeus have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 9 meetings, with Panathinaikos managing just 1 victories and 4 draws shared.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
The historical record gives Olympiakos Piraeus a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Olympiakos Piraeus goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
Panathinaikos goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 32% versus Panathinaikos 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 30% | Panathinaikos 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 0.84 xG and Panathinaikos 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.806 / defence 0.879 | Panathinaikos attack 1.089 / defence 0.740. League average goals — home 1.412 / away 0.976. Panathinaikos's defence strength of 0.740 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 31 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 31 Panathinaikos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Draw 39% | Panathinaikos 33%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 3.57 | Draw 2.56 | Panathinaikos 3.03. The draw (39%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 39% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.78 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Olympiakos Piraeus 10% | Panathinaikos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Draw 39% | Panathinaikos 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 0.84 / Panathinaikos 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.806 / def 0.879 | Panathinaikos attack 1.089 / def 0.740 | league avg home 1.412 / away 0.976 • Poisson stance: Draw (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Panathinaikos xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 11 October 2026 at Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Panathinaikos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos being played?
The match is being played at Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 28% chance of winning, Panathinaikos a 33% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Record (9 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 4W | Draws 4 | Panathinaikos 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Panathinaikos (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Panathinaikos's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.84. Flip it around — Panathinaikos's attack (1.09x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.58
39%
2.56
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.8%
Away win
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
1.78
0.94
Panathinaikos xG
3.58
28%
Home win
2.56
39%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
11%
9.13
14%
7.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.94 for Panathinaikos, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 37 games, going 22W 10D 5L for 2.05 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Panathinaikos sit at 1.81 PPG from 37 outings (19W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Panathinaikos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 2.05 PPG for Olympiakos Piraeus against 1.81 for Panathinaikos. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 11W 4D 3L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.06 PPG return.
Away from home, Panathinaikos have taken 1.56 points per game from 18 outings (8W 4D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 0.51 conceded per game recently; Panathinaikos are on 1.59 scored and 0.95 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their games; Panathinaikos in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Panathinaikos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 22W 10D 5L in their last 37 games (2.05 PPG), while Panathinaikos have gone 19W 10D 8L in their last 37 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Panathinaikos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.06 PPG; Panathinaikos away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Panathinaikos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 59% of their recent games, Panathinaikos in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Olympiakos Piraeus have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Panathinaikos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Olympiakos Piraeus
4
Draws
1
Panathinaikos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 5, Panathinaikos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos last play each other?
They last met on 11 October 2026, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Panathinaikos.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Panathinaikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 22% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 39% (Panathinaikos) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 44% (Panathinaikos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 61% of their matches; Panathinaikos in 39%; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 28% of games; Panathinaikos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Panathinaikos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Panathinaikos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 22% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 39% of Panathinaikos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Panathinaikos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 44% of Panathinaikos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Panathinaikos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Panathinaikos in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Olympiakos Piraeus defy the odds to beat Panathinaikos 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Panathinaikos 1-0 at Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 0.84 xG and Panathinaikos 0.94 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Panathinaikos landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 0.81 / defence 0.88 against Panathinaikos attack 1.09 / defence 0.74, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 28% | Draw 39% | Panathinaikos 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Olympiakos Piraeus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 30%, Panathinaikos 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.
Panathinaikos's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Olympiakos Piraeus 2.05 PPG, Panathinaikos 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Olympiakos Piraeus win broke the near-deadlock. Panathinaikos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.