Olympiakos Piraeus 3-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 59% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 27 September 2025 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium: 8W 2D 0L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Levadiakos have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 0.50 PPG lead over Levadiakos (2.50 vs 2.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Olympiakos Piraeus, who have won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Levadiakos — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2025, ended 1–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 44% versus Levadiakos 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 44% | Levadiakos 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.72 xG and Levadiakos 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.417 / defence 0.780 | Levadiakos attack 1.006 / defence 0.942. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.050. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.417 — their λ of 1.72 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 30 Levadiakos games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 18%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Levadiakos 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Levadiakos 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (30 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Sep 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 46% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.72 / Levadiakos 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.417 / def 0.780 | Levadiakos attack 1.006 / def 0.942 | league avg home 1.289 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Levadiakos xG
46%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 September 2025 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 3 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 59% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 18% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Record (4 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 3W | Draws 1 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.42x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (1.01x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
The sample (30/30 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
59%
1.70
24%
4.24
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.54
0.82
Levadiakos xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
26%
3.88
3%
31.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.1 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.82 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 36 games, going 26W 7D 3L for 2.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 1.53 PPG from 36 outings (15W 10D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 13W 4D 0L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 1.59 points per game from 17 outings (7W 6D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 0.64 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 1.56 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 26W 7D 3L in their last 36 games (2.36 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 15W 10D 11L in their last 36 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Levadiakos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.53 PPG; Levadiakos away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Levadiakos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 53%, Levadiakos 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Olympiakos Piraeus) and 47% (Levadiakos).
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Levadiakos?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 59% of Levadiakos's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 47% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Levadiakos 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Levadiakos 3-2 at Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.72 xG and Levadiakos 0.82 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Olympiakos Piraeus beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Levadiakos outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.42 / defence 0.78 against Levadiakos attack 1.01 / defence 0.94, drawn from 30/30 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 59% | Draw 24% | Levadiakos 18%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 59%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 44%, Levadiakos 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.36 PPG against 1.53. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.