Olympiakos Piraeus 2-2 Levadiakos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki plays host to Olympiakos Piraeus versus Levadiakos in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 20 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Olympiakos Piraeus (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Olympiakos Piraeus have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Levadiakos have collected 0.57 PPG across 7 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 4D 3L. Last five: L D D D L. Their scoring rate of 0.57 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Levadiakos have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Levadiakos's away record: 0W 2D 1L from 3 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Olympiakos Piraeus. A 1.23 PPG lead over Levadiakos (1.80 vs 0.57) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Olympiakos Piraeus lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 6–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Olympiakos Piraeus half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time.
Levadiakos half-time and goal-timing data (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 29% versus Levadiakos 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Olympiakos Piraeus 43% | Levadiakos 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG and Levadiakos 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.139 / defence 0.772 | Levadiakos attack 0.846 / defence 1.168. League average goals — home 1.130 / away 1.201. Olympiakos Piraeus's defence rating of 0.772 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 33 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 7 Levadiakos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.96 | Draw 3.12 | Levadiakos 6.25. Olympiakos Piraeus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Olympiakos Piraeus as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Olympiakos Piraeus if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 50% | Levadiakos 67%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 / Levadiakos 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.139 / def 0.772 | Levadiakos attack 0.846 / def 1.168 | league avg home 1.130 / away 1.201 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Levadiakos xG
45%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus 2 - 2 Levadiakos.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 51% chance of winning, Levadiakos a 16% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Record (2 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 2W | Draws 0 | Levadiakos 0W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-W-D. Levadiakos (all comps): 0W-4D-3L in 7 | 0.57 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 L-D-D-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Olympiakos Piraeus's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Levadiakos's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. Flip it around — Levadiakos's attack (0.85x) against Olympiakos Piraeus's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 33/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
51%
1.96
32%
3.08
16%
6.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.29
0.78
Levadiakos xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
6.11
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
4%
27.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.0 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.78 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Olympiakos Piraeus come into this having played 7 games, going 4W 2D 1L for 2.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Levadiakos sit at 0.57 PPG from 7 outings (0W 4D 3L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Levadiakos, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Olympiakos Piraeus carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.43 PPG clear of Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Olympiakos Piraeus's home form reads 2W 1D 0L across 3 games on their own ground, a 2.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Levadiakos have taken 0.67 points per game from 3 outings (0W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded per game recently; Levadiakos are on 0.57 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Olympiakos Piraeus have seen both teams score in 29% of their recent games.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 7 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Early Season
Levadiakos
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while Levadiakos have gone 0W 4D 3L in their last 7 (0.57 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Levadiakos away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.33 PPG; Levadiakos away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Levadiakos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 71% of their recent games, Levadiakos in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 14 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Olympiakos Piraeus won 6-0 on 5 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Levadiakos — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Olympiakos Piraeus
2
Draws
0
Levadiakos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
From 6 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 4, Levadiakos have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos last play each other?
They last met on 14 February 2026, when Levadiakos 0-0 Olympiakos Piraeus.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Levadiakos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 33%, Levadiakos 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 33% for Levadiakos.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Olympiakos Piraeus have failed to score in 33% of games; Levadiakos in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Levadiakos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Levadiakos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent matches and 67% of Levadiakos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Levadiakos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Olympiakos Piraeus's recent games and 33% of Levadiakos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Levadiakos in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 8, as Olympiakos Piraeus and Levadiakos drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.50 xG and Levadiakos 0.78 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Levadiakos outscored their 0.78 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.14 / defence 0.77 against Levadiakos attack 0.85 / defence 1.17, drawn from 33/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 51% | Draw 32% | Levadiakos 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 43%, Levadiakos 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 71% of the time, and conceded here.
Levadiakos's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.57. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Levadiakos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.