Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Olympiakos Piraeus (63%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Olympiakos Piraeus face Lamia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Super League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Lamia travel to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki to take on Olympiakos Piraeus. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 December 2024, 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Olympiakos Piraeus — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Olympiakos Piraeus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 8W 2D 0L at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki — 2.60 PPG. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Olympiakos Piraeus are significantly better at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lamia stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Lamia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, Lamia have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
On current form, Olympiakos Piraeus have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.40) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
Olympiakos Piraeus hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 8 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Lamia, with 0 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 31 Aug 2024, ended 3–0 with Olympiakos Piraeus winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Olympiakos Piraeus and goals. The home side's 8 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Olympiakos Piraeus trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lamia trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Olympiakos Piraeus 51% versus Lamia 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Olympiakos Piraeus 61% | Lamia 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.455 / defence 0.805 | Lamia attack 0.850 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.223. Olympiakos Piraeus carry an above-average attack strength of 1.455 — their λ of 1.92 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 41 Olympiakos Piraeus games / 41 Lamia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 63% | Draw 22% | Lamia 16%. Fair-value odds: Olympiakos Piraeus 1.59 | Draw 4.55 | Lamia 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Olympiakos Piraeus (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Olympiakos Piraeus are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Olympiakos Piraeus 60% | Lamia 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Olympiakos Piraeus 63% | Draw 22% | Lamia 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 49% | xG Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 / Lamia 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.455 / def 0.805 | Lamia attack 0.850 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Olympiakos Piraeus (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Lamia xG
49%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kick off?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia kicked off at 17:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What was the final score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus 1 - 0 Lamia.
Where is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki.
What competition is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia part of?
Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our statistical model gives Olympiakos Piraeus a 63% chance of winning, Lamia a 16% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Olympiakos Piraeus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia will score (BTTS).
Will Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Record (9 meetings): Olympiakos Piraeus 8W | Draws 0 | Lamia 1W.
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in?
Olympiakos Piraeus (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Lamia (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Olympiakos Piraeus's attack at 1.46x the league average against Lamia's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lamia's attack versus Olympiakos Piraeus's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.5%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Olympiakos Piraeus Win
63%
1.60
22%
4.57
16%
6.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Olympiakos Piraeus xG
Total xG
2.75
0.84
Lamia xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.57
22%
Draw
6.44
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
43%
2.31
15%
6.81
Win to Nil
27%
3.69
2%
43.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 10.2 | 4.3 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.7 | 9.8 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 6.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Olympiakos Piraeus and 0.84 for Lamia, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 51 outings, Olympiakos Piraeus have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 32W 10D 9L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Olympiakos Piraeus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lamia's form line: 10W 14D 27L from 51 games, 0.86 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-L. The sample for Lamia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Olympiakos Piraeus are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Lamia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Olympiakos Piraeus have posted 2.40 PPG from 25 outings (19W 3D 3L).
On the road, Lamia have gone 4W 8D 13L from 25 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Olympiakos Piraeus come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Olympiakos Piraeus are averaging 2.08 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Lamia are on 1.02 scored and 1.94 conceded.
Defensively: Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Olympiakos Piraeus
Blended
Lamia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia in coming into this match?
Olympiakos Piraeus have gone 32W 10D 9L in their last 51 games (2.08 PPG), while Lamia have gone 10W 14D 27L in their last 51 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Olympiakos Piraeus at home or Lamia away?
Olympiakos Piraeus's home record (2.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Olympiakos Piraeus at home: 2.40 PPG; Lamia away: 0.80 PPG.
Have Olympiakos Piraeus or Lamia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Olympiakos Piraeus have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Lamia in 16%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 December 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Olympiakos Piraeus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2023, when Olympiakos Piraeus won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Olympiakos Piraeus's record when hosting Lamia specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
9
Olympiakos Piraeus
0
Draws
1
Lamia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
From 10 meetings on record, Olympiakos Piraeus have won 9, Lamia have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2024, when Olympiakos Piraeus 1-0 Lamia.
Who has won more matches between Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia?
Olympiakos Piraeus have the better head-to-head record, with 9 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Olympiakos Piraeus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time.
Lamia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Olympiakos Piraeus 56%, Lamia 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Olympiakos Piraeus and 64% for Lamia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Olympiakos Piraeus keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Lamia in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Olympiakos Piraeus home games / Lamia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Olympiakos Piraeus play Lamia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Olympiakos Piraeus's games and 60% of Lamia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Olympiakos Piraeus vs Lamia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Olympiakos Piraeus's matches and 64% of Lamia's.
Do Olympiakos Piraeus and Lamia tend to score early?
Olympiakos Piraeus have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Lamia in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Olympiakos Piraeus edge out Lamia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Olympiakos Piraeus beat Lamia 1-0 at Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Olympiakos Piraeus 1.92 xG and Lamia 0.84 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Olympiakos Piraeus fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Lamia landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Olympiakos Piraeus attack 1.46 / defence 0.81 against Lamia attack 0.85 / defence 1.08, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Olympiakos Piraeus 63% | Draw 22% | Lamia 16%, with Olympiakos Piraeus to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Olympiakos Piraeus 61%, Lamia 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Olympiakos Piraeus's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Lamia's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Olympiakos Piraeus arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Olympiakos Piraeus (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line. Lamia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.